Israel Elections Update: The Waiting Game

And so, we wait. We wait for the fourth time before we know if we are doomed to have a fifth election in three years. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who seemed like a winner just yesterday, is experienced enough to know that winners are declared only when the last votes are counted. That means Friday. About 10 of the Knesset’s 120 seats are still waiting to be counted. This will take time and could change everything.

Why everything? Because as of now, the bloc that would support a Netanyahu coalition has 59 seats, and the bloc that would support his removal has 61 seats. After the missing votes are counted, we may have a symbolic 60-60 result. In many ways, a 60-60 result is what we deserve. A clear tie. A clear signal that we — Israeli voters — have failed again.

In many ways, a 60-60 result is what we deserve. A clear tie. A clear signal that we — Israeli voters — have failed again.

Our Talmudic sages called this inability to decide a Teiku. In the Middle Ages, the sages claimed that Teiku is an acronym for “Elijah, who will resolve unresolved matters” (in Hebrew it works). So we have to wait for an Elijah, or vote again, or count on one of our leaders to perform a political miracle. A 61-seat majority, such as the one the opposition has, is not a recipe for a stable coalition. A 59-seat minority, such as the one Netanyahu has, is even less of a recipe.

What are the options? One is for a very hawkish coalition to rely on the Islamist party Raam to form a coalition. Ideologically, that would be quite a feat, and many members of this imaginary coalition already vowed not to accept any such deal. Another option is for Netanyahu to find a few MKs who — for proper reward — agree to switch sides. Again, a difficult proposition. Another option is for Netanyahu’s opponents to form a coalition that stretches from the ultra-rightist Saar to the anti-Zionist Balad. That’s another unlikely feat, even when the glue of such a bloc is as strong as the temptation to unseat Netanyahu.

All this has to wait for Friday, for the final results. They could have meaning even if they just change the preponderance of power from 59-61 to 60-60; for example, by eliminating the option of a 61-seat anti-Netanyahu bloc move to take over the speaker’s seat and pass a law that prevents Netanyahu, who is in the middle of a trial, from running in the fifth election. No wonder Netanyahu instructed all Likud MK’s to cease from giving interviews. He does not want his party to commit to any specific position post-election (pre-election commitments are known not to be worth much). He wants all options open.

In Saar and Elkin, both of whom served Netanyahu as political operators, the PM finally found his match.

He wants them open, among other things, because of the rivals he is facing. The attempt of right-wing politicians to challenge Netanyahu did not produce much electoral success: The party of former Likud members Saar and Elkin will have five or six seats in the Knesset. But the game isn’t over yet. And in Saar and Elkin, both of whom served Netanyahu as political operators, the PM finally found his match. He knows that they know about politics almost as much as he does. He knows that they are aware of all his strengths and weaknesses. And they are nearly as charismatic as he is in campaigning. But Election Day is over, and now we brace ourselves for weeks of tricks and plots, back room deals and clandestine negotiations.

If this wasn’t depressing, it’d be fascinating to watch.