Israel’s Political Swing: Netanyahu is Suddenly Vulnerable

In 24 hours, Israel’s political map completely changed. All because of a decision by a senior Likud politician to leave his old party and form a new right-wing party, one without Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and without the baggage (and advantage) or religiosity that puts a ceiling above the head of the Yamina party. This new party, according to early polls and sober analysis, could be the undoing of Netanyahu.

The name of the politician is Gideon Saar. He is an experienced political operator, a well-liked communicator, a man who thinks about the issues of the day with proper seriousness. He can be a magnate for the following voters: right-wingers who no longer care for the cult of Bibi; centrists who look for a viable political option that could make a change; even some center-left voters who see the ousting of Netanyahu as the first priority and anything else as second. All these supporters translate to seats. How many? Maybe close to 20. Maybe, in an ideal scenario, close to the number of seats that Likud will get.

Saar can alter the political map because of his flexibility if he will be tasked one day with forming a coalition. There is no reason Yamina would not join his coalition (he is right-wing enough for anyone). There is no reason the ultra-Orthodox will be against him (he is known to have had close relations with them). There is no reason center-left parties like Blue and White and Yesh Atid would not join him (he speaks the language of secular Tel Avivians).

Saar can alter the political map because of his flexibility if he will be tasked one day with forming a coalition.

Saar breaks the old formula of “right means Bibi and all the rest is left.” Breaking this formula is essential because most Israelis are right or center-right, and the ceiling for a center or left party is limited. Blue and White could not convince Yamina to join. But Saar has such an option. Yesh Atid could not convince United Torah Judaism to join their coalition. Saar could and would. Finally, Netanyahu has to face a rival that says what many Israelis agree with — Netanyahu’s policies are fine, but we reject his character.

From an ideological perspective, Saar is not going to be a sea change from Netanyahu. He supports annexation in the West Bank, he wants to put restrictions on the Supreme Court’s ability to intervene in political affairs, he was tough on keeping the Golan Heights and supportive of the Nationality Basic Law. Under different circumstances, Saar would be a nightmare for a true leftist agenda. Under the current circumstances, however, he could become the savior of center-left voters.

The only question is timing. Specifically, whether Netanyahu and his rival Benny Gantz — who also just lost his ability to be the main alternative to Netanyahu — will decide that their shared interest in avoiding an election is suddenly more important than their mutual dislike.