In a confidential report from Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) to officials working on the country’s nuclear program, the supreme leader Ali Khamenei’s desired course of action is outlined. It asserts that while the regime’s missile capabilities are a significant factor in the “deterrence power of the Islamic Republic,” considering the “ongoing regional conflict” and the possibility of its escalation, the regime now needs a “higher level of deterrence.” The current balance is inadequate for the “next stages” of the conflict, and the report suggests that the “best solution is to alter the nuclear doctrine and design a new balance of power model.”
The balance of power in the region has dramatically shifted following the killing of Hassan Nasrallah and the severe blows dealt to Hezbollah, Hamas and other proxy forces. The regime’s so-called “strategic depth” has, in its own words, been shattered.
According to revelations by the Iranian opposition group, the National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI was the first to reveal Iran’s secret nuclear program in 2002), a report following the regime’s second missile strike on Oct. 1 stated that in Operation Vow of Truth 2, “ballistic and hypersonic missiles were used.” However, the report stressed that repeating similar missile strikes would “achieve nothing new” and could instead escalate into direct military confrontations between Iran and Israel, further destabilizing the already unpopular regime and paving the way for another uprising. For this reason, the Iranian regime aims to avoid direct confrontation, referring to this tactic as “strategic patience.”
Shift in Defense or Deterrence Doctrine?
On Oct. 9, 2024, 39 members of Iran’s parliament wrote to the Supreme National Security Council, calling for a shift in the regime’s defense doctrine to include nuclear weapons. Hassan Ali Akhlaqi Amiri, a member of the parliament’s cultural committee, referred to Khamenei’s “fatwa” that forbids nuclear weapons, but noted that “in Shi’ite jurisprudence, time and place influence rulings, and secondary rulings can replace primary ones.”
That same day, parliamentarian Mohammad Reza Sabaghian stated that they would ask Khamenei to reconsider and change the strategy on nuclear weapons. He added, “Building nuclear weapons would be easy for us … In the current situation, to ensure deterrence and national security, developing nuclear capabilities is necessary. The enemy seeks to weaken Iran’s deterrence through negotiations, assassinations, and military threats. We must not neglect to strengthen our deterrence.”
On Oct. 11, former Foreign Minister Kamal Kharazi stated in an interview with Al Jazeera that “if the Zionist regime dares to harm Iran’s nuclear facilities, our deterrence level will change, and if Iran’s existence is threatened, we will have no choice but to change our nuclear doctrine.”
On Oct. 12, Brigadier General Haq-Talab, commander of the IRGC’s Nuclear Facilities Security Corps, said, “Revising the doctrine and nuclear policies of the Islamic Republic of Iran and departing from previously announced positions is both possible and conceivable.”
That same day, Brigadier General Rasoul Sanayee Rad, Deputy Political Director of the Commander-in-Chief’s Ideological-Political Office, said, “Some politicians have raised the possibility of changes in strategic nuclear policies.”
Also on Oct. 12, parliamentarian Mohammad Manan Raeesi declared that “the nuclear doctrine of the Islamic Republic must change … To achieve maximum deterrence, there is no avoiding a shift in the nuclear doctrine. Currently, we are not far from this goal. Fortunately, over the past year, we’ve made significant progress in the nuclear field. God willing, within six months, we will achieve this capability.”
It seems that the Iranian regime is aiming to follow the model set by North Korea.
It seems that the Iranian regime is aiming to follow the model set by North Korea.
The Real Threat is Inside Iran, Not at the Borders
It is said that Iran has enough enriched uranium for eight to ten nuclear bombs and could test its first within weeks. However, the U.S. has repeatedly stated—and made it clear to the Iranian regime—that it will not allow Iran to acquire nuclear weapons. The regime knows that testing its first bomb would cross a red line, making any retreat impossible.
A government-affiliated newspaper, however, suggests that the existential threat to the Iranian regime doesn’t come from external enemies but from within.
Emerging from the Middle Ages and unable to meet the needs of its people in the 21st century, the Iranian regime has relied on repression from the very beginning. To hide this repression, it has stirred up war, crises and terrorism outside its borders. This has been the mullahs’ survival strategy: creating proxy forces to wage war and spread terrorism. The regime called this its “strategic depth,” extending into Syria, Iraq, and even the Red Sea.
With its “strategic depth” collapsing, the regime faces two paths:
- Continue supporting its proxies, thus accepting direct confrontation with Israel. In this scenario, Israeli strikes could destabilize the regime, creating the very situation Khamenei sought to avoid at the start of the conflict, and setting the stage for new uprisings.
- Withdraw support for its proxies, which would require the regime to open up domestically and reduce repression to some extent. Until now, the regime has used war as a cover for its oppression. But without warmongering, the regime would have to allow more openness. After 40 years of repression, this would likely lead to a massive explosion of public discontent, like a powder keg finally detonating.
The Iranian regime is trapped in a strategic deadlock. If it pursues nuclear weapons, it embarks on a path of no return. If it does not, it still faces inevitable collapse at the hands of its own people. The regime’s only choice seems to be, as Ali Khamenei once warned, between death and suicide out of fear of death.
Hamid Enayat is a political scientist, specializing on the topic of Iran, who collaborates with the Iranian democratic opposition.
Change in Defense and Deterrence Doctrine?
Hamid Enayat
In a confidential report from Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) to officials working on the country’s nuclear program, the supreme leader Ali Khamenei’s desired course of action is outlined. It asserts that while the regime’s missile capabilities are a significant factor in the “deterrence power of the Islamic Republic,” considering the “ongoing regional conflict” and the possibility of its escalation, the regime now needs a “higher level of deterrence.” The current balance is inadequate for the “next stages” of the conflict, and the report suggests that the “best solution is to alter the nuclear doctrine and design a new balance of power model.”
The balance of power in the region has dramatically shifted following the killing of Hassan Nasrallah and the severe blows dealt to Hezbollah, Hamas and other proxy forces. The regime’s so-called “strategic depth” has, in its own words, been shattered.
According to revelations by the Iranian opposition group, the National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI was the first to reveal Iran’s secret nuclear program in 2002), a report following the regime’s second missile strike on Oct. 1 stated that in Operation Vow of Truth 2, “ballistic and hypersonic missiles were used.” However, the report stressed that repeating similar missile strikes would “achieve nothing new” and could instead escalate into direct military confrontations between Iran and Israel, further destabilizing the already unpopular regime and paving the way for another uprising. For this reason, the Iranian regime aims to avoid direct confrontation, referring to this tactic as “strategic patience.”
Shift in Defense or Deterrence Doctrine?
On Oct. 9, 2024, 39 members of Iran’s parliament wrote to the Supreme National Security Council, calling for a shift in the regime’s defense doctrine to include nuclear weapons. Hassan Ali Akhlaqi Amiri, a member of the parliament’s cultural committee, referred to Khamenei’s “fatwa” that forbids nuclear weapons, but noted that “in Shi’ite jurisprudence, time and place influence rulings, and secondary rulings can replace primary ones.”
That same day, parliamentarian Mohammad Reza Sabaghian stated that they would ask Khamenei to reconsider and change the strategy on nuclear weapons. He added, “Building nuclear weapons would be easy for us … In the current situation, to ensure deterrence and national security, developing nuclear capabilities is necessary. The enemy seeks to weaken Iran’s deterrence through negotiations, assassinations, and military threats. We must not neglect to strengthen our deterrence.”
On Oct. 11, former Foreign Minister Kamal Kharazi stated in an interview with Al Jazeera that “if the Zionist regime dares to harm Iran’s nuclear facilities, our deterrence level will change, and if Iran’s existence is threatened, we will have no choice but to change our nuclear doctrine.”
On Oct. 12, Brigadier General Haq-Talab, commander of the IRGC’s Nuclear Facilities Security Corps, said, “Revising the doctrine and nuclear policies of the Islamic Republic of Iran and departing from previously announced positions is both possible and conceivable.”
That same day, Brigadier General Rasoul Sanayee Rad, Deputy Political Director of the Commander-in-Chief’s Ideological-Political Office, said, “Some politicians have raised the possibility of changes in strategic nuclear policies.”
Also on Oct. 12, parliamentarian Mohammad Manan Raeesi declared that “the nuclear doctrine of the Islamic Republic must change … To achieve maximum deterrence, there is no avoiding a shift in the nuclear doctrine. Currently, we are not far from this goal. Fortunately, over the past year, we’ve made significant progress in the nuclear field. God willing, within six months, we will achieve this capability.”
It seems that the Iranian regime is aiming to follow the model set by North Korea.
The Real Threat is Inside Iran, Not at the Borders
It is said that Iran has enough enriched uranium for eight to ten nuclear bombs and could test its first within weeks. However, the U.S. has repeatedly stated—and made it clear to the Iranian regime—that it will not allow Iran to acquire nuclear weapons. The regime knows that testing its first bomb would cross a red line, making any retreat impossible.
A government-affiliated newspaper, however, suggests that the existential threat to the Iranian regime doesn’t come from external enemies but from within.
Emerging from the Middle Ages and unable to meet the needs of its people in the 21st century, the Iranian regime has relied on repression from the very beginning. To hide this repression, it has stirred up war, crises and terrorism outside its borders. This has been the mullahs’ survival strategy: creating proxy forces to wage war and spread terrorism. The regime called this its “strategic depth,” extending into Syria, Iraq, and even the Red Sea.
With its “strategic depth” collapsing, the regime faces two paths:
The Iranian regime is trapped in a strategic deadlock. If it pursues nuclear weapons, it embarks on a path of no return. If it does not, it still faces inevitable collapse at the hands of its own people. The regime’s only choice seems to be, as Ali Khamenei once warned, between death and suicide out of fear of death.
Hamid Enayat is a political scientist, specializing on the topic of Iran, who collaborates with the Iranian democratic opposition.
Did you enjoy this article?
You'll love our roundtable.
Editor's Picks
Israel and the Internet Wars – A Professional Social Media Review
The Invisible Student: A Tale of Homelessness at UCLA and USC
What Ever Happened to the LA Times?
Who Are the Jews On Joe Biden’s Cabinet?
You’re Not a Bad Jewish Mom If Your Kid Wants Santa Claus to Come to Your House
No Labels: The Group Fighting for the Political Center
Latest Articles
Nathan Hochman Celebrates Victory over Gascon in Much-Watched L.A. County DA Race
Who Are The Jewish Winners in the 2024 Elections?
Democrats Must Be Wondering How So Many Americans Could Vote for a Fascist
Table for Five: Lech Lecha
Campus Watch November 6, 2024
What is Antisemitism?
Culture
Kosher Comfort Food
Freshly Minted: A Fall Delicata Quinoa Salad
Ayelet Gundar-Goshen on ‘The Wolf Hunt,’ Writing and Oct. 7
Israeli Film Festival Returns with Powerful Films and Honorees Ynon Kreiz and Shaike Levi
Food Writing, Studying Citrus and Mojito Cookies with Aaron Hamburger
Taste Buds with Deb – Episode 81
Trump: ‘America Has Given Us an Unprecedented and Powerful Mandate’
The Republican delivered a victory speech at his campaign’s Florida headquarters after Fox News declared him the victor in the 2024 US presidential election.
Trump Retakes Presidency, Heralding New Era for the United States, Its Jews and Its Relationship With Israel
Trump’s victory would reshape the United States and its relationship with Israel while ushering in an administration whose domestic priorities do not match those of most American Jews.
How Sam Delug Transformed Notorious Menendez House into a Community Hub
Once the house was completed, he decided to open it for charity events.
Rabbi Kornsgold Didn’t Want a Pulpit. She Took It.
“I never thought I would be in a pulpit,” Rabbi Gavriella Kornsgold said a year and a half after joining Sinai Temple, one of the community’s largest synagogues.
Hollywood
Spielberg Says Antisemitism Is “No Longer Lurking, But Standing Proud” Like 1930s Germany
Young Actress Juju Brener on Her “Hocus Pocus 2” Role
Behind the Scenes of “Jeopardy!” with Mayim Bialik
Podcasts
Food Writing, Studying Citrus and Mojito Cookies with Aaron Hamburger
Yael Grobglas: “Matlock,” the Magic of Food and Lentil Salad
More news and opinions than at a
Shabbat dinner, right in your inbox.
More news and opinions than at a Shabbat dinner, right in your inbox.