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Why Israelis See the U.S. Election So Differently

[additional-authors]
November 3, 2020
Photo by Nick Brundle Photography/Getty Images

On Election Day, it is good to be reminded that America and Israel are two different countries.

1.

You (the American reader) should know that Israelis are somewhat confused. They tend to forget that Trump versus Biden is an American election and imagine that it is all about them. That is — about Israel. Of course, it isn’t, and Israelis would be better off if they were less confused. But many years in which America is the great uncle and Israel is the admiring fan obscured by the great distance (geographic, cultural, material) between the countries.

Do Americans also think about the Israeli election in such a way? I suspect that some American Jews do. So, on Election Day, it is good to be reminded that these are two different countries. What America decides might impact Israel — but it is none of Israel’s business.

What America decides might impact Israel — but it is none of Israel’s business.

2.

Of course, Israelis have their preference. Most of them want Trump to win. And this is not because they support his immigration policies, or admire his style (some do), or see him as the best shield against the coronavirus. It is because they see him as a true friend to Israel and as someone whose policies are better for dealing with Israel’s challenges.

What are these policies? There are three areas where Trump generally succeeded in convincing Israelis that he is on the right side.

One — Iran. We can debate from today until the end of the next term whether the cancelation of the Iran deal was the right move (many security experts in Israel believe it wasn’t). What is clear, though, is that Trump sees Iran for what it is and does not toy with farfetched hopes that mere “engagement” will tame Iran’s radical policies. Trump believes in maximum pressure. Israelis appreciate this sentiment.

Two — the Palestinian arena. Trump is the first president in thirty years who decided to attempt a policy of circumventing the Palestinian issue. The Palestinians were unresponsive, so he moved elsewhere. By doing this, he probably did more to advance the cause of normalization and possible peace than all of his predecessors.

Three — the international community. This is an underappreciated component of the special affinity Israelis have for Trump. Israel is highly suspicious of the “international community” and its behemoth institutions. Trump seems to feel the same about these institutions. When he ignores world public opinion and shuns global elites, Israelis are reassured. He is not the one who will pressure Israel to get accolades from diplomats in Brussels.

3.

Note that the previous point is more about sentiments than about actions and results. In Iran, Trump’s policies did not produce a result with which Israel can live. With the Palestinians, Israel still has a conflict that needs to be resolved. The international community had to restrain itself when Trump was in office but was never convinced that his policy was the right one.

Here is what he did that has a tangible outcome: moving the U.S. embassy to Jerusalem. Opening the door for normalization with a few Arab states. That’s basically it.

Here is what he did that has A tangible outcome: moving the U.S. embassy to Jerusalem. Opening the door for normalization with a few Arab states. That’s basically it.

4.

Even those who believe Trump was great for Israel (as I do) must acknowledge certain prices that Israel paid or will pay because of his policies.

Iran is advancing its nuclear program; America’s power to shape world events and global public opinion declined — America’s power is an important component of Israel’s power of deterrence; Supporters of the Democratic Party became more suspicious of Israel, Trump’s darling. Last but not least, American policies became less predictable and more dependent on the personal quirks of one man. That was good for Israel, but deep down, its leaders know that Trump is the type of person that can turn on a dime. So, a second term has its risks.

5.

Turning to Biden. Israelis are worried about him. They are worried for one simple reason: He was Barak Obama’s vice president, and Israelis look at the Obama era with no sense of nostalgia. Right or wrong, the fact is that most of them believe Obama was not a real friend to Israel. And Biden did not stop him from not being a real friend (and if and when he did stop him, it was not made public).

Israelis are worried about Biden. They are worried for one simple reason: He was Barak Obama’s vice president, and Israelis look at the Obama era with no sense of nostalgia.

Of course, Biden’s history with Israel goes back much further than the Obama administration. But people tend to be forgetful about such things. And besides, the nuances of Senate voting records are less noticeable to a non-professional than the visibility of a vice president.

The result is a misperception. Biden will not be a Trump-like friend but could still be a good friend. He will not move the embassy back to Tel Aviv. He will advance the process of normalization with Arab states, as he (and his advisers) understand the importance of this process and also want to bite this low hanging fruit. The two big questions about his future policies concern Iran and the Palestinians.

6.

Biden will try and renew negotiations with Iran. Trump would probably do the same. Biden will try and create an improved version of the JCPOA — the “Iran deal” — as the old version is outdated. Trump would probably do the same.

Trump might be a better negotiator because of his image of unpredictability. Tehran might come to believe that rejecting his advances could be too risky. Biden might be a better negotiator because of his more methodological approach and because he seems more credible. The key for both is similar: to pursue an agreement without seeming too eager; to pursue an agreement while keeping a sincere threat of sanctions and force on the table; to pursue an agreement as a real priority and give this matter real attention.

On the first two points, Trump is probably more fit; the third, I’d go with Biden. One way or the other, there’s the other side to consider, and Tehran doesn’t always follow the script assigned to it by experts and leaders in the West.

7.

The Palestinian issue is a mess. If I had to make a bet, I’d assume that neither Trump nor Biden will spend much time on this currently lost cause. For Trump, this will be easy. There will be no pressure on him to move forward, and the Palestinians will not be cooperative. For Biden, it could be slightly more complicated, as some forces within his party may try to drag him back to Ramallah.

The Palestinian issue is a mess. If I had to make a bet, I’d assume that neither Trump nor Biden will spend much time on this currently lost cause.

I think Biden knows better. The Palestinians do not currently have a leadership that could cut a true deal, and to be honest, neither does Israel. Biden could be forced to pretend to have a go at this problem, but the plate of the next president will be overflowing with more urgent problems, such as the pandemic and the economy and relations with China.

8.

A word about relations between American Jews and Israel. Trump was not good for these relations. He polarized all relations, including those of Jews. A strange and fascinating alliance between him and the Orthodox world deepened the internal rift between liberal Jews — who think he is Pharaoh — and Orthodox Jews — who see him as Cyrus. Across Israel and America, in Orthodox synagogues, a prayer for the success of Trump was heard last Shabbat. The Frum are rooting for the playboy. If politics is known to make strange bedfellows, here is proof number one.

If Trump is elected, doom and gloom will spread among American Jews, and the celebration of Israelis will only make matters worse. If Biden is elected, it’d be calmer for a while. That is, until the first clash over Iran or the settlements.

9.

If history tells us anything, it is never to trust our prejudgment of the next term of a president. No one knew Trump would face a pandemic. No one could have imagined 9/11 when Bush was elected. No one would have guessed that a governor of Arkansas would become an expert on Israel and Palestine.

If history tells us anything, it is never to trust our prejudgment of the next term of a president.

In fact, Prime Minister Rabin wanted Bush senior to get a second term. Many Israelis wanted to see Gore elected and not Bush the second. Similarly, a majority of them wanted Hilary Clinton to win in 2016. In fact, Obama was the only president since Reagan whom Israelis did not want for good reason, even in retrospect.

Will Trump be good for Israel? He was good for four years, but another four is another story.

Will Biden be good for Israel? He was a friend for many years, but being the president is a different story.

10.

As an Israeli, I try to remain calm and keep my cool. And I insist on never advising Americans how to vote. I’d urge Americans to behave similarly when Israel holds its next election.

This is your election — not mine. Good luck, America. May you make the best choice.

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