Twenty-four hours before the deadline for a (possible) new election, the graph below shows the political pros and cons of such election is clear:
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu can hope to form a right-religious coalition after a new election (currently, this coalition gets 62 seats at the polls). More importantly, he cannot see anyone else having the ability to form a coherent coalition, because while Likud’s seat numbers declined, the voters that abandon Likud do not move to parties from the other “bloc,” they stay with Naftali Bennet’s Yamina.
What happens if Bennet decides to abandon Netanyahu and form a coalition, maybe with Bennet as the prime minister for half the time (alternating with Lapid), with the center-left? It is an option people are talking about, but the numbers make it seem quite difficult to see this playing out.
Note: We added a column of “weighted” average to this table that takes into account when was the poll taken, and how many participated. This gives more weight to more recent and larger polls.
Two weeks ago, Yamina, the right-wing religious party was rising in the polls. These latest polls show that when the Unity Government was formed, and Yamina stayed out, its stock somewhat declined. It rose again when the public realized that the new government was not functioning, and the pandemic came back with vengeance.
Even when he was in the government Bennet, was the lone voice on this subject. He barely spoke about anything else (not even annexation) and kept hammering the government for putting politics before the pandemic. In interviews, Bennet sounded informed, focused, ready to take charge. He sounded like an adult in a room of bickering children. His new book, “How to Beat a Pandemic,” is due to be released, and this will only reinforce his political message.
So Bennet is doing well in the polls, taking votes away from Likud, and some from Blue and White. The question is, will it last? In previous election cycles Bennet always did better in pre-election polls than he on election day. His support is fragile and tends to fall prey to last-minute Netanyahu campaigns. Will this time be different? That depends on many factors, including timing. But for now, Yamina has reasons to be optimistic and has no reason to join the current coalition.
