December 10, 2019

Israel’s Election: Winners and Losers (final edition)

A note to readers: This post is undated throughout the night (Israel time) as new numbers get in.




The Parties and Blocs

These are graphs based on the counting of votes, not final but close to being final.



The next Prime Minister

We know who lost: Netanyahu does not have enough votes to form a coalition. But we don’t quite know who won. It is hard to see how Gantz forms a coalition. There is a third option that is becoming more realistic as the numbers get in: A Likud PM other than Netanyahu.


The next coalition

The math seems to suggest that Unity is the only option. That is, unless Gantz and other centrist parties decide that forming a coalition based on Arab support is no longer an obstacle (and Arab leaders agree).

The question is: Unity with or without Netanyahu.


Most surprising outcome

The polls were quite accurate (if the exit polls are accurate). If there’s surprise, it is the number of Arab MK’s expected in the next Knesset. The constant attacks on Arab voters created a backlash. According to current numbers the Arab party will have 12 seats. Close to its 13 seat record.


Clear winners

Avigdor Lieberman is the kingmaker. This is exactly what he wanted.

Arabs and Haredis were hammered during the campaign, both camps responded by rallying the voters and getting more seats.


Clear Losers

Netanyahu. For a second time, he failed to have 61 supporters.

The Democratic Camp. Ehud Barak has no followers.

Labor under Peretz has no more votes than Labor under Gabbai.

Ayelet Shaked, the “most popular minister”, ended up as the head of a small-size party.

Otzama: Once again, radical rightists were fooled to believe that they have enough votes to cross the threshold.


Shmuel’s book, #IsraeliJudaism, Portrait of a Cultural Revolution, is now available in English. The Jewish Review of Books called it “important, accessible new study”. Haaretz called it “impressively broad survey”. Order it here: