Political Update: Gantz Down, Lapid Up, Netanyahu Alone at the Top

The newly-formed government is struggling to stabilize itself. There is a deep sense of mistrust between its two main parties, Likud and Blue and White. There are also debates about annexation and the budget. The media speculates on a looming crisis and a new election. Does anyone want new election? I think that’s unlikely. On the other hand, the political situation could be tempting for those dreaming about the good old days of the right-religious coalition of like-minded politicians.

What do we see in the table below?

First – that Likud is the one and only large party. Blue and White as a serious contender is no more. Its average in June polls is slightly more than 11 seats, while Likud is close to 41.

Second – the current coalition is more seats in the Knesset (73) than in the polls (close to 69). This is because public support for some of the parties that joined the coalition went down (in the case of Labor to zero seats).

Third – if Israel held an election today, the right-religious coalition (the one Netanyahu wanted) would receive 65 seats. However, this will not be an easy coalition to form — not after Netanyahu’s decision to ditch right-wing Yamina from his current coalition.

Fourth – the party that is slowly surging is Yesh Atid, the main opposition party. Its average for June is higher than its average since election day. Voters abandoned Blue and White (the Gantz faction that joined the coalition) and moved to Yesh Atid (the Lapid faction that stayed out).

Fifth – for now, the next electoral map does not include Labor or Jewish Home or Derech Eretz. It is a map of just nine parties. Other parties failed to meet the electoral threshold.

Sixth – The Joint List seems slightly stronger. In some polls, the party that represents mostly Arab voters climbed to 16.

Blue and White graph: