Hope After Revolution: Iran + Israel = BFFs?

The revolution unfolding in the streets of Iran is a marvel to behold. I pray that the freedom fighters win.

But I am witnessing a lot of confusion and outdated thinking, as people debate these developments. Almost everyone gets key facts wrong about the Middle East. And these mistakes make it harder for western outsiders to truly grasp the incredible promise of this moment.

Persian ≠ Arab

For example, Iran is not an Arab country. It’s a Persian country.* And tucked inside that distinction is real hope for true peace in the Middle East.

Let me explain.

People still speak about the Arab-Israeli conflict. That phrase once made sense – a long time ago. But today that description no longer accurately captures the circumstances in the region.

Quick context for readers who are new to this conflict & region:

• There are 22 Arab League states. Many oppose Israeli policies, support Palestinian statehood and mourn the destruction of Gaza. But NONE today is openly, actively pursuing Israel’s destruction. Not ONE.
• Many Arab and Muslim-majority governments are now pursuing trade, security and development ties with Israel.
• The reason is simple: Israel is now seen as a permanent powerhouse. Most Arab leaders are choosing coexistence over conflict.
• The region’s main hold-out is the Islamic Republic of Iran. Its Ayatollahs still call for “Death to Israel.”
• A free Iran would be less hostile. After all, Iran is a Persian country, not an Arab country. And Persians and Jews have been friends for millennia.

Those facts taken together offer real hope for regional transformation – as soon as the Iranian people shake off their dictators and hold free elections.

Arab states are quietly making peace with Israel.

The preconditions for peace are already there. The landscape has changed dramatically in recent years.

Just to be clear – I am not saying all Arabs love Israel. Not at all. Far from it.

• There is deep Arab resentment, anger and frustration toward Israel, especially toward the Netanyahu government.
• The Palestinians continue to fight for dignity, and they enjoy broad Arab support.
• Unfortunately there remain death cults like the ISIS-remnants and ISIS-wannabes, also in the mix.

But these facts overshadow a more complex reality emerging on the ground.

Most Arab nations have begun quietly waving the white flag; they seek no more military conflict with Israel. Even states that once waged war against Israel have moved on. They are no longer working to wipe out the Jewish state.

The major Arab League nations that no longer seek Israel’s destruction include:

• Egypt (1979 peace treaty)
• Jordan (1994 peace treaty)
• UAE, Bahrain, Morocco and Sudan (recent Abraham Accords or normalization steps).

Other Arab states and forces have stood down, been beaten down or backed off.

• Syria – Its anti-Israel dictator Bashar Al-Assad fell in 2024. The new government is less hostile to Israel.
• Lebanon – Israel’s pager attacks and other strikes decimated Hezbollah in 2024. That fractured state is less hostile.
• Qatar – It often uses money and media to discredit the Jewish state, but it never seeks direct confrontation.
• Others (Saudi Arabia, Oman) engage pragmatically — seeking quiet diplomacy, security coordination or conditional normalization — rather than destruction.

Bottom line: Israel’s adversaries want no more smoke. They’ve stopped betting on Israel’s disappearance. They know their oil will run out long before a nation like Israel falls. Most now choose reality and prosperity over jihadist fantasy and permanent war.

As a result: no Arab state is openly, actively seeking Israel’s destruction anymore.

None.

Sit with that.

This shift toward normalization is only accelerating and deepening. Egypt and Israel just announced a multi-billion-dollar natural gas deal a few weeks ago. Smart business ties between Arabs and Israelis are slowly becoming the rule, not the exception.

If Arabs can trade with Israel, Persians DEFINITELY can. The last big holdout in the region is Iran.

Iran’s Ayatollahs still want to wipe Israel off the map; they still lead chants of “Death to America! Death to Israel!” In the fight for peace and stability in the region, the Islamic Republic of Iran is the “final boss.”

But here’s the key point: In Iran, the dictators are mainly subjugating Persians, not Arabs.

Why is that fact so important – and encouraging? Because Persians and Jews do not typically fight each other. To the contrary: the alliance between Persians and Jews dates back for thousands of years, since King Cyrus of Persia.

They have lived together in relative peace for centuries. (Many Jews ARE Persian!) While the governments of Israel and Iran have tangled for decades, the historical norm between the Jewish people and the Persian people is thousands of years of predominantly peaceful coexistence.

It seems normal to us to see Israel fighting Iran-backed Hamas, Iran-backed Hezbollah and Iran-backed Houthis. But historically, sustained “Persian versus Jew” conflict has been rare and highly atypical.

Therefore, a free, democratic Iran would almost certainly stop funding terror, normalize ties with Israel and become a more peaceful, trade-based partner for prosperity.

Arab leaders secretly hate the Islamic Republic of Iran.

Nobody would be happier to see a new regime in Tehran than the leaders of the Arab states.

Here’s the open secret: most Arab leaders are fed up with Iran. They see the biggest obstacle to progress in the region as the Islamic Republic of Iran. (Not Israel!)

The reason: Iran’s rulers have funded terror proxies throughout the region, which have destabilized the entire Middle East.

That’s one reason that Arab governments backed Israel (!!!) and the United States against Iran, during recent military clashes. (Yes, that really happened!)

Translation: the most important fault line in today’s Middle East conflict is not the idea of “Israelis versus Arabs.” That’s outdated thinking.

The defining conflict right now is “Israel versus the Iranian regime + its proxies.” Given the long love affair between Persians and Jews, that’s an absurd reality.

When the Persian people overthrow the Ayatollahs, everything could change.

That absurdity points to a hopeful possibility: a free Iran is almost certain to join the Arab states in accepting Israel’s existence – either expressly or tacitly.

The minute that happens, a regional settlement — including real dignity and freedom for Palestinians — becomes far more achievable. More Israelis would welcome a Palestinian state, if they knew Iran wouldn’t turn it into a staging ground for its terror proxies.

The people of Iran are not genocidally anti-Israel or anti-Jewish in the way Iran’s rulers are.

• A free, democratic Iran would not pose an existential threat to Israel.
• It would not brutalize its own people.
• And it could become a credible, constructive advocate for Palestinian dignity and freedom – rather than an enabler of extremist fantasies that only prolong fear and suffering.

Arabs and Israelis are finding a way to coexist – begrudgingly, but peacefully and productively.

If Persians and Jews return to their historic partnership, they can do the same thing – and more! If that happens, the entire region could blossom and bloom in ways not seen in centuries.

* NOTE: I am using the terms Arab state, Persian state and Jewish state colloquially – with no intention of erasing the incredible diversity inside each country.

In reality, few countries are made up of only ONE ethnicity. For example, the 22 “Arab League states” and the one “Jewish state” contain many other ethnicities besides Arabs and Jews. And while Persians are by far Iran’s largest ethnic group (around 60 percent) – other significant minority groups include Azerbaijanis (20 percent), Kurds (10 percent), Lurs (six percent) and others. Additionally, many Jews come from Iran (and also from Arab League countries).

It’s an ethnically and religiously complicated region. That’s one reason why the reductionist and didactic conversations we have about the Middle East fall so flat – and do so much harm.

Van Jones is a three-time New York Times bestselling author, a CNN host and contributor, and an Emmy Award winner.