3 short notes on Israeli politics

Back in Israel after a week of attending to American politics, I will turn my attention today to Israeli politics.

1.

It's been a little more than a year since the last elections in Israel, and a little less than a year since Netanyahu formed his fourth, unappealing coalition – a 61 member coalition that was expected by many pundits and rival politicians to barely survive.

Yet it survives. Not without difficulties. Rebellious Members of Knesset embarrass it from time to time by refraining to vote with the coalition. Parties have the power to delay or block government action – a notable example is the Western Wall compromise that the Haredi parties currently insist on blocking. But all in all, the coalition survives. And most urgent matters (sorry dear North American friends, the Kotel compromise is not as urgent to most Israelis as it is to you – see the recent PEW survey for details) are taken care of.

2.

How does a 61 member coalition survive? Take a look at the polls – we track them for you – and get your answer. A poll published by Maariv last week showed most coalition parties are getting weaker. Likud with 26 (it has 30 today). Kulanu with 6 (it has 10). Shas with 6 (it has 7). This means that most of the members of the coalition would not benefit if new elections were called. They would lose. So they have no incentive to quit the coalition, not even when things are not moving in the exact direction that they want.

Take, for example, Finance Minister Moshe Kahlon.

Kahlon wanted the job and promised his voters to solve one of Israel's most complicated social problems: the price of housing. A year is hardly time enough to show results, so Kahlon has nothing to show for at this time. He needs more time to achieve something as a minister – and hence needs more time to build on his reputation in this term as he tries to sway voters to his side in the next election.

Kahlon also has a problem. When the coalition was formed he agreed to a two-year budget plan. He does not want such a budget, because it ties the hands of the ministry. The PM wants it because, well, it weakens all coalition partners – two years without having to pass a budget are two years without the political headache that is an inherent part of every round of budget negotiations.

Kahlon could have said: it is either me or the two year budget, and since Netanyahu has no coalition without Kahlon this would create a problem for him. But Kahlon did not say this. What he said is: I oppose the two year budget but will honor my commitment to it. When do politicians feel such great need to honor their commitments? We know when they do: when the alternative is worse. And Kahlon's alternative – to have a new round of elections – is worse.

3.

Two parties that are members of the coalition are making gains in the polls. United Torah Judaism seems to be making small gains (one seat), The Jewish Home is making larger ones (it would go from 8 seats to 12 in both Maariv and Channel 1 news). So maybe these parties do have a reason to quit the coalition and ignite a new round of elections?

Not really.

Consider the following: The Jewish Home, with eight seats, has three ministers and a de-facto veto power over all decisions made by the government. Yes, new elections could provide it with more seats, but parties are not about seats, they are about having political power – and when it comes to political power, their situation today is ideal. A narrow coalition makes them essential. A relatively coherent coalition makes it easier for them to get what they want without much resistance from other parties. A coalition controlled by the right-religious factions ensures that they will be a part of it.

This will not necessarily be the case if new elections are called. In a Haaretz survey this morning, a hypothetical centrist party headed by former Likud minister Gideon Saar, minister Kahlon and former IDF chief of staff Gabi Ashkenazi gets more seats than the Likud Party – 23 to 22. The right-religious bloc shrinks in such a scenario to 51 seats. The Haredi parties will have the same number of seats, but less power. The Jewish Home will have many more seats, but even less power.

In other words: the more the polls paint a grim future and show a decline in the popularity of the coalition, the greater the incentive for the members of the coalition to keep it in tact.