Bibi’s Bind

Donald Trump warned Hamas that unless the hostages were returned by Inauguration Day, “All hell will break loose.”

After 15 months laughing at Joe Biden’s bumbling foreign policy, where Israel had an unqualified right to defend itself so long as it didn’t kill any Gazans, where promised munitions to the Jewish state were delayed and humanitarian aid stolen by Hamas was blamed on Israel, the leaders of Hamas—whoever was still left standing—must have been startled that America had elected someone with the true grit to issue a true threat.

Clearly without Trump’s return to the Oval Office, no Israeli and American hostages would be released this past weekend—or possibly ever. Israel didn’t need 15 months to end this war. It could have been over soon after it began—and with more hostages still alive. All that Israel required was to have its American ally bolt the door on the gathering mob of hectoring antisemites and get out of the way.

We are, however, where we are. But make no mistake: this negotiated ceasefire that will unfold in stages will not end well unless Trump, and his entirely revamped American foreign policy team, ensures that all remaining hostages are released, the remains of dead hostages are returned, and all members of Hamas, Islamic Jihad and Palestinian “civilians” who participated in the October 7 massacre pay the ultimate price for their crimes.

Because the resolution to the conflict, as it now stands, positively stinks. In the Middle East version of “Let’s Make a Deal,” I would have preferred skipping over this gambit and going to straight to Door Number 2: the “All hell will break loose” option. I am curious to know what hell would look like for the millions of Palestinians still cheering for Hamas and celebrating the bloodbath that will forever be remembered as October 7.

Almost instantly after these ceasefire negotiations were announced, Gazans took to the streets to bizarrely exult in some psychotic victory. If Gazans are celebrating the death of 44,000 of their own people and the ruination of the entire Strip, then this war is far from over.

Cheering in the streets is a telltale sign that Gazans have not quite had enough, and that Hamas’ promise of several more reenactments of October 7 is something they are all actually counting on.

The world needs to understand what Israelis have long known: Palestinians are notably unlike the Confederate states at Appomattox, the British at Yorktown and Napoleon at Waterloo. They don’t seem to know when they have been defeated. Even complete decimation, in their minds, is construed as a win. Reality never sinks in. Such is the depth of their Jew-hating delusions.

The world needs to understand what Israelis have long known: Palestinians are notably unlike the Confederate states at Appomattox, the British at Yorktown and Napoleon at Waterloo. They don’t seem to know when they have been defeated.

This realization cannot be underestimated. All of Trump’s primary Cabinet secretaries testified this past week that there can be no Hamas in a reconstituted Gaza. But pursuant to the deal, Israel is scheduled to release 730 Palestinian prisoners, many of whom had either murdered Israelis or built weapons that were used for that purpose.

Once returned to Gaza, the West Bank or elsewhere, expect none of them to have found religion—other than the one where they are already devout believers, the very same one that obliges dead Jews as an article of faith. No matter what this negotiated ceasefire expressly states, these newly freed Palestinians will most certainly return to the only actual “occupation” that applies to them: terrorism.

And what does Israel receive in return? Three hostages at the outset, followed by 30 of the 90 believed to still be alive.  Remember, the hostages were innocent civilians—elderly and children—who had been kidnapped and held for ransom and as bargaining chips for extortion. If the unbalanced moral ratio to this exchange sounds absurd, well, . . . it is.

Israelis know this to be dangerously true. But a sizable majority are prepared to accept even a bad deal if it means the eventual return of hostages. Will they all make it back? Are 90 still alive?

All throughout these negotiations, Hamas sought better terms on Palestinian prisoners because it knew what many terrorist aficionados had already suspected: the cards Hamas was holding consisted of far too many dead hostages. That’s not a good look when you are trying to focus the world’s attention on dead Gazans killed by genocidal Israelis.

This legerdemain worked because it was only Israel that was expected to uphold humanitarian standards. The barbarism of Hamas was given a Palestinian pass.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has largely supported this defective deal. He had little choice. He had to trust Trump and not undermine the new president’s Day 1 demand. But didn’t Trump mean all the hostages? Why are we still negotiating with terrorists? Why are we not unloading the Trumpian hellscape on Gaza?

In order to finalize this done deal, Netanyahu had to convince his War Cabinet and governing coalition of its merits. He knew that ultranationalists like Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich and National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir would refuse to release any prisoners and thus add to the population of terrorists. Everyone knows that, as it has always done in the past, Hamas will renege on its commitments. By then, Israel’s wartime pause would have normalized. A decision will then have to be made whether to reset the clock and resume the war or accept the status quo.

Once soldiers return home, a nation naturally loses its will to send them back into battle. Hopefully Israel will at least retain a military presence in the Philadelphi Corridor where Gaza and Egypt share a border. That’s where Hamas doubtlessly smuggled in its arsenal that set this war in motion and allowed it to continue.

Bibi is in a bind. Israel needs to see the return of some hostages: especially the elderly and children. But he also wants to retain his new title as Winston Churchill reincarnate—a far more heroic legacy than being remembered for the national security debacle that was October 7. He was on the precipice of vanquishing Hamas and Islamic Jihad, once and for all.

Obviously, Bibi is betting that Trump will not interfere if after the 42-day ceasefire all hostages are not returned, too many are no longer alive, rockets are still being fired and Hamas appears to be reconstituting with new recruits and old aspirations.

That’s not something Israel can accept, and the world needs to be prepared that this ceasefire could reignite.

Thane Rosenbaum is a novelist, essayist, law professor and Distinguished University Professor at Touro University, where he directs the Forum on Life, Culture & Society. He is the legal analyst for CBS News Radio. His most recent book is titled “Saving Free Speech … From Itself,” and his forthcoming book is titled, “Beyond Proportionality: Is Israel Fighting a Just War in Gaza?”