Rosner’s Domain: Healthy Skepticism for the New Year

A new year. What do Israelis expect is going to happen in a new year? Two numbers tell a story. They tell a story about our leaders’ unfulfilled promises, and about an Israeli public that is wiser than its leaders seem to think. Apparently, Israelis do not believe the promises of their leaders. And what’s interesting is that they don’t even believe the promises of the leaders they support. The fact that Benny Gantz voters don’t buy Benjamin Netanyahu’s promises is obvious. But Gantz voters are also skeptical about Gantz’s promises. In other words, the public maintains a healthy, general skepticism. And here are two pieces of evidence. 

Let’s begin with the Supreme Court. The public is exposed to a horde of promises concerning reforms in the legal system. One politician promises a complete overhaul, another promises a nuanced reform, a third vows to protect the judges from any change — as if the court is Israel’s number one problem (far from it), as if a new Knesset is expected to make far-reaching changes (not that simple), as if our lives depend on whether Minister Ayelet Shaked or Minister Gideon Sa’ar will alter the responsibilities of the Attorney General, or that Israeli democracy depends on Meretz’s Zehava Galon preventing damage to the court. Most Israelis don’t fall for these histrionics, regardless of their ideology.

Nevertheless, the Supreme Court is a frequent campaign slogan for almost all parties, so we asked the public in a survey whether in the new year “legislation will be passed that will diminish the powers of the Supreme Court.” The answer is of course complicated, because in order to know if there is any chance at all for passing such legislation, you must first know who will win the elections. But we know that the voters of the right believe that the right is going to win, so they should have told us yes — surely laws will be passed that will erode the powers of the Supreme Court. Isn’t that a main reason for which a right-wing government is needed? Isn’t that why the Likud party and its allies joined together? Well – if it is, the voters on both sides aren’t quite buying it. 

This outcome is interesting on both sides of the political divide: the center-left is trying to convey a sense of urgency and panic over the possibility that the powers of the court will be reduced. But if their public assumes that no such legislation is expected this year, it is not clear what exactly the panic is all about. And even more interesting is the expectation on the right. As we already said: on the right there is a majority who believe that the Netanyahu bloc is going to win the elections. And if so, it should have assumed that the old dream of diminishing the power of the court could finally be fulfilled.

And yet — a clear majority of right-wing supporters believe that the court’s powers will stay unchanged. It is a smaller majority than the clear majority on the center-left. But still a clear majority. More than sixty percent. 

Why is the right so skeptical about Supreme Court reforms? Maybe because it has experience and understands that much of the talk about the court is empty rhetoric. Perhaps it remembers that Netanyahu already had several coalitions, and yet always blocked attempts to reduce the power of the court. Perhaps it is because it suspects that within a narrow coalition there will be some troublemakers who will make it impossible to obtain a majority for reforms in the court. For whatever reason, they don’t believe the reforms are coming. Do they want them? Of course. Do they believe that Netanyahu will win? Yes, they do. Do they think the legal reforms are imminent? Not really. 

Here is a second example, concerning the skepticism of the other camp. What is the election strategy of the center-left based on? The belief that at a certain moment, perhaps right after the elections, when Netanyahu will no longer have a majority, he will have no choice but to retire. Either someone else in Likud will rise up and challenge him, or he will reach a plea bargain, or the ultra-Orthodox will force him to step aside. There is no chance that Netanyahu can survive another failure. That’s the thesis. 

So, will Netanyahu retire this year? Likud voters obviously don’t think so. Victory guarantees that he will stay, and victory is what they expect. But what about the voters of the other bloc? Do they believe that Netanyahu is going to retire? Well — the answer is no. In the graph (right hand side), we present the numbers for Likud vs. Yesh Atid voters. Most voters of the main coalition party think that Netanyahu’s retirement is not imminent. Put simply: promises, hints, rumors, everything related to Netanyahu’s possible retirement — none of this convinces the voters.

That’s the forecast for the new year: Netanyahu stays – and the power of the court stays. A contradiction? Not really. In fact, it’s been that way for quite a few years, so why not this one?

So that’s the forecast for the new year: Netanyahu stays — and the power of the court stays. A contradiction? Not really. In fact, it’s been that way for quite a few years, so why not this one?

Something I wrote in Hebrew

To gain the support of the ultra-Orthodox, Netanyahu agreed to fund schools who do not teach core curriculum. Here’s what I wrote:

Netanyahu sold goods he didn’t have. To deliver the goods, he will have to be the prime minister. That is, he did what Lapid or Gantz would also do to become prime minister. Give up on core curriculum to become the PM. These leaders tell themselves that there are more important things than the core curriculum… Their argument is: if we try to force the curriculum on the Haredis – we will fail… There are matters that those politicians believe should be settled by force. If you suggest that they wait with Iran, they will laugh at you. They will say that you are naive. But the ultra-orthodox are not Iran… they are not enemies… that’s why it’s easier to give up pressure, force, sanctions, and hope for the best”. 

A week’s numbers

For details, read the column above:

A reader’s response:

Tuvia B. writes: “Shana Tova Shmuel. May you bring us only good news from Eretz HaKodesh”. My response: Amen.

Shmuel Rosner is senior political editor. For more analysis of Israeli and international politics, visit Rosner’s Domain at jewishjournal.com/rosnersdomain.