Benjamin Netanyahu and Benny Gantz seem close to finalizing their unity pact. On Monday evening, the president agreed to extend Gantz’ mandate until Wednesday night, giving them 48 hours to seal the deal. On Tuesday morning the two leaders had a long meeting. The teams negotiating the deal will reconvene on Wednesday night. So nothing is yet final, but it’d be reasonable to assume that the leaders decided to bet on an uneasy coalition rather than an inconceivable fourth election.
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What is this deal: A government of Likud, Blue and White (only Gantz’ faction of the former B&W), United Torah Judaism, Shas, Gsher (Orly Levy Abekasis), Derech Eretz (Hendel and Hauser), two members of Labor (Peretz and Shmuli). All in all: 72 MK’s. If Yamina gets to join (that’s in doubt): 79 MK’s. In both cases, that’s a large majority.
Netanyahu will be Prime Minister for a year and a half, then Gantz is slated to replace him (Netanyahu will stay as Deputy). The cabinet will be split, half for the right-religious bloc, half for those who come with Gantz.
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This is not happening tomorrow, or the next day, or the day after. Even when the deal is sealed, there is complicated legislation involved that precedes the forming of a government. The new coalition must pass laws that will make the transition from Netanyahu to Gantz after a year and a half possible. It is complicated because of two things. One – Gantz does not trust Netanyahu and wants a mechanism that makes it hard for Bibi to botch the deal after a year and a half. Two – Netanyahu is supposed to stand trial and cannot serve as minister. A new law must guarantee his ability to serve as a deputy to the PM.
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In the coming weeks there will be a lot of noise concerning the appointment of ministers. This is important for those who want to become ministers, but less important to the public. Clearly, Netanyahu will be the dominant decision maker in this government, with Gantz playing second in command. Other appointees are, well, not as important (does it really matter who gets to be the foreign minister who never travels, or the transportation minister?). My advice: do not spend too much time thinking about why this or that politician was promoted or demoted.
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Considering the preponderance of power in the new coalition, one must consider the political situation in which each player functions. The table below shows the average of all polls taken since Election Day. As you can see, there is only one party with enough expected seats to have a claim on being the anchor of any future government. That’s Likud. All other parties are much smaller. Also note that at least three factions of the new coalition have no political future (unless they merge with other parties): Labor, Gesher and Derech Eretz are all below the electoral threshold in all polls. This means that their members have significant interest in keeping the coalition together, and this is something Netanyahu might be able to work with in case the arrangement between him and Gantz does not last for very long.
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Two last significant events of note:
A. What we see here is probably the final nail in Labor’s coffin. The party that established Israel and ruled it for a long time is quietly evaporating. The process was long and painful, but ultimately Labor caved under the pressure of social and political change. It also fell victim to its own political culture. Likud excelled in picking leaders and guarding them. Labor changed them like used socks.
B. If Yamina does not join the coalition, the right-religious bloc of the past year also crumbles. Netanyahu believes in the alliance with the Charedi parties, and is less interested in the alliance with a religious-Zionist party. Why? Because of his belief that Likud could be the home for religious-Zionist voters, and because he knows that any future such party will have no alternative to Likud. In other words, what we see here might be a sign that another powerful relic of the past – the religious-Zionist Mafdal and its successors – might be on its way to the dustbin of political history.
