Israel United in War

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s international critics, including a not small number of American Jews, often personalize their unhappiness with Israel’s political direction by assuming that Netanyahu’s continued presence in office is the only thing that prevents what they would consider to be a more enlightened national agenda. 

But the last two non-Netanyahu prime ministers – Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid – presented themselves essentially as “Bibi-ism without Bibi,” avoiding many of the political and personal distractions that have characterized Netanyahu’s recent tenure while still hewing closely to his most important policy goals. As the Gaza war oozes toward its sixth month with no end in sight, it may be that Netanyahu is not at odds with the opinions of his constituents but that as a wartime leader, he is a fairly reliable barometer of what the Israeli people are thinking and feeling as they struggle to recover from the impact of the Oct. 7 massacre.

Despite his numerous disagreements with Netanyahu, Gantz sounded remarkably like the prime minister when he strongly rejected the growing international calls for a ceasefire.

Longtime Netanyahu nemesis Benny Gantz, who joined the war cabinet after the Hamas attacks, recently articulated his own vision for Gaza. Despite his numerous disagreements with Netanyahu, he sounded remarkably like the prime minister when he strongly rejected the growing international calls for a ceasefire:

“War now, peace later,” Gantz declared, offering nothing that sounded even slightly conciliatory, and providing little hope that Gaza could be safe and secure, let alone autonomous, any time soon. “I would dare to say it would take a year, a decade, a generation.”

That is a markedly longer timeline than Joe Biden or Emmanuel Macron has in mind. But despite the growing pressure from the U.S. and others, Gantz made a particularly strong effort to throw cold water on the concept of a Palestinian state and offered a Bibi-esque warning about the prospect for an Israeli ground offensive into the southern Gaza city of Rafah.

“The world must know, and Hamas leaders must know – if by Ramadan our hostages are not home – the fighting will continue to the Rafah area,” Gantz warned.

“But to those saying the price is too high – I say this very clearly: Hamas has a choice. They can surrender, release the hostages, and this way, the citizens of Gaza can celebrate the holy holiday of Ramadan.” 

There does not appear to be much daylight between the two men, or for that matter, between them and their nation’s Jewish population. According to recent public opinion polls taken by the Israel Democracy Institute, the Israeli people do not seem to be in an especially conciliatory mood. Just under two-thirds of Jewish respondents oppose the establishment of an independent and demilitarized Palestinian state. A plurality of Jewish respondents believe that terrorism against Israel would increase if such a step were taken.

Even more striking were the poll results directly regarding the current violence. When asked how to best ensure the security of Israelis living near the Lebanon border, more respondents supported an all-out attack against Hezbollah than a diplomatic agreement. And more than two-thirds of Jewish Israelis polled oppose humanitarian aid to Gaza “at this time” – even if Hamas and UNRWA are not involved.

(The one topic on which Israeli Jews and Arabs were in strong agreement was on the question of whether the Palestinian Authority could be sufficiently reformed to effectively manage the West Bank and Gaza. Seventy percent of Israeli Arabs thought such a step was unlikely and no fewer than 83% of Jews agreed.)

But the ground may be shifting slightly. The minority of Israeli Jews who would support an agreement to end the war that included the release of all Israeli hostages, long-term “military quiet” and a peace agreement with Saudi Arabia in exchange for the release of large numbers of Palestinian prisoners and a two-state solution has increased in the last month from 29% to 37%. Opposition is still strong, but it appears that for a growing number of Israelis, exhaustion is beginning to overtake anger as their primary motivation. If these numbers continue to increase, either Netanyahu or Gantz will have a unique opportunity – ensconced in an incredibly difficult political challenge.

Dan Schnur is the U.S. Politics Editor for the Jewish Journal. He teaches courses in politics, communications, and leadership at UC Berkeley, USC and Pepperdine. He hosts the monthly webinar “The Dan Schnur Political Report” for the Los Angeles World Affairs Council & Town Hall. Follow Dan’s work at www.danschnurpolitics.com.