Rosner’s Domain | What Are We Waiting For?

Israel is waiting for something. It could be big – last time we were waiting we got a war with Iran. It could be small – a trick whose main aim is preservation of the coalition or delaying the Netanyahu trial. It could be a triumph – the return of all hostages. It could be a disappointment – a realization that Hamas was able to survive as the ruling entity in Gaza. It could be a novelty – peace with the new, mysterious Syria maybe? It could be controversial – normalization with the Saudis in exchange for acceptance of something on the Palestinian front. 

It could be all of the above, or none of the above, or some of the above, or just a mirage. We are waiting. What other choice do we have?

On Sunday, PM Netanyahu asked to postpone his testimony at his trial. He is too busy to attend. The judges said no. He asked again. They said no. He brought in two senior officials, the head of military intelligence and the head of Mossad. They testified behind closed doors. The judges changed their minds. Netanyahu is off the hook, for now. How were his judges convinced to release him from having to testify? We can only assume that they heard something serious enough to convince them that yes, the PM is busy. With what? See the above detailed list for options. Of course, there are other options. We are waiting to see what they are.

In the cabinet meeting, the IDF commanders told the ministers something akin to “we aren’t sure what else you want us to do in Gaza.” They didn’t say “Mission Accomplished” the way George W. Bush did in the midst of the Iraq war.  They did say “mission accomplished” in the smaller sense: we did what we said we’d do. We occupied the territory you asked us to occupy. We operated, with questionable success, the plan to feed Gazans without the involvement of Hamas. If you want us to do more, tell us exactly what to do, and we’d tell you what the price of your new asks will be. This – the IDF told the ministers – is going to be a mission with a steeply declining return of our investment in resources, manpower and blood.

Some of the ministers weren’t pleased. The frustration showed, and it is not ungrounded. Israel wanted to end the war with Hamas on its knees. Hamas is not yet on its knees. It still controls, to a certain degree, what remains of Gaza – the small areas in which people are allowed to live. Frustrated ministers said: we told you what we want – Hamas on its knees and the hostages back. A reluctant IDF says: true, and we tell you that getting what you want is going to cost a lot more than you are willing to pay. And if it’s not – if you’re willing to pay the very high cost that will be needed, please give us new instructions in writing, lest we find ourselves the scapegoat when the public gets upset with the new mission.

Netanyahu knows better than to pick a fight with the military. He knows better than to give new orders in a way that could be incriminating. He knows better than to think that he could win a battle with the IDF. 

He also knows better than to think that Israel can just call it quits and have an agreement in Gaza that is so clearly short of what Israel aimed at – the end of Hamas in Gaza. What would be his best option? To have a diversion – an achievement grand enough to be worthy of the frustration of not quite finishing the job in Gaza. Imagine peace with Syria with Israel not having to leave the Golan Heights. Imagine peace with Saudi Arabia with Israel not having to accept a plan for a two-state solution. Imagine the hostages coming back – and peace with Syria – and normalization with the Saudis – and American commitment to keeping Fordow inaccessible for Iran (I don’t think this option is on the table).  

Imagine something dramatic enough, promising enough, to sweeten the bitter pill of realization that Hamas, while weakened, devoid of support, isolated, lacking resources, is still standing, or limping. 

Imagine something dramatic enough, promising enough, to sweeten the bitter pill of realization that Hamas, while weakened, devoid of support, isolated, lacking resources, is still standing, or limping. And know: it is indeed a bitter pill to swallow. Not even Israelis who wanted the war to end a while ago, not even Israelis who said time and again that getting back the hostages is more important for them than toppling Hamas, will be comfortable with a Gaza that is still under the influence of Hamas. Not even they would deny that at some point, when there’s opportunity, or a viable plan, the quest to uproot Hamas must be renewed. But as things stand now, it seems that most Israelis, and at least some members of their government, are ready to swallow the pill – alongside a powerful sweetener. 

Thus – we wait.

Something I wrote in Hebrew

When Trump tweeted against the Netanyahu trial, I wrote this:

There is, of course, also the problem itself, which many Israelis recognize. Not the problem of the tweets, the problem of the trial: Trump has a point. There is a difficulty with Netanyahu’s trial. There is a difficulty with a prime minister who has to take the witness stand and at the same time lead a complex war. You might say: let him resign! There is a problem with that, too. He is the prime minister the public elected. You might say: he is a criminal! Not true. He is on trial, nothing more. And nothing less, of course. It is easy for some of the prime minister’s supporters to forget, that Netanyahu’s trial … would not have come about if it were not for the prime minister’s wanton conduct. Criminal? That’s for the court to decide. Wanton? Definitely. Netanyahu, by his conduct, enabled his trial. So even if someone believes that the lawsuit against him is petty, unnecessary, dangerous and evil, Netanyahu has more than a shred of responsibility for the fact that he is on trial. 

A week’s numbers

Maariv poll from last Friday. With time, these impressions could still change.

A reader’s response

Uri Yoffie writes: “Did they ever pass the exemption law for Haredim?” Answer: No, but they say they are working on it. Maybe this too is something that is awaiting the sweetener (see left hand column).

Shmuel Rosner is senior political editor. For more analysis of Israeli and international politics, visit Rosner’s Domain at jewishjournal.com/rosnersdomain.