Rosner’s Domain | How Will the War End?

On Sunday, Nassim Nicholas Taleb, of Black Swan fame, nastily posted the following on X: “Five decades ago, Binyamin Saddam also underestimated the Iranians & how long it would take to end the war he started.”

A polite translation would go as follows: When Saddam Hussein launched a war against Iran in the early 1980s – the Iran-Iraq War – he too hoped for a swift victory. Alas, the war dragged on for nearly a decade. That is, because the Iranians don’t surrender easily. Thus, it would be a grave mistake for Prime Minister Netanyahu, or for anyone else, to confuse an initial tactical success, as dramatic at it might be, with an ultimate strategic victory.  

When Saddam Hussein launched a war against Iran in the early 1980s, he too hoped for a swift victory. Alas, the war dragged on for nearly a decade. That is, because the Iranians don’t surrender easily. 

Israel dazzled the world with its innovative, daring operations inside Iran. If you’re not impressed, look again. The Israeli Air Force does as it pleases above Iranian skies, thousands of miles from Israel’s shores. The Israeli Mossad operated within Iran, and was able to launch deadly attacks on its most senior security leaders. Yes, Israel also absorbed deadly strikes on its own cities but — not to minimize the personal sufferings of people, of families – the counterpunch from Iran, thus far, was not as devastating as previously advertised. It was painful, and yet tolerable, if that’s the price for … well, for what? 

Amid the triumph, the question of long-term purpose and chances of success remains. And three sketchy scenarios can be painted:

First scenario: Israel will keep striking, and at some point, for whatever reason, the United States will join in. In this case, it would be possible to roll back Iran’s nuclear program by at least a few years — and then try to offer the Iranians a deal. They can either accept it or reject it – either way, it will be hard to trust them to keep their promises without robust verification – because the underlying reasons for which Iran is pursuing nuclear capabilities haven’t disappeared; in fact, the initial defeat against Israel’s forces only intensified them.

Second scenario: Israel will keep fighting on its own. That will require an ongoing war, with no clear end in sight, against Iran. The current wave of war will weaken at some point, but every time Iran would make an attempt to renew its nuclear program, or replenish its missile stockpiles or rebuild its air defense systems — Israel is going to have to strike again. The price will be heavy, in both resources, manpower and quality of life. Perhaps there is no avoiding this price, because the alternative is worse, but the cost will become increasingly burdensome, and the public will grow weary. The cost will be felt every day. The alternative scenario – of a nuclear danger materialized – will have to be imagined. The price paid might outweigh the theoretical long-term risk. That’s often the case, and that’s precisely why most nations refrain from launching preemptive wars, and when they do, they often regret it later.

Third scenario: Israel is aiming for regime change in Iran. It’s not easy to say this out loud, but if you ask the question with care, you’d get a sense that this is what Israel is truly hoping for Why? Because it’s the only scenario imaginable that has a clear and favorable end point. If Iran would shed its current regime and transition to a new leadership, new horizons will be opened. A new leadership could shift the blame for the military defeat to its predecessor, and strive to put Iran on a new path –  one that excludes a military nuclear development.

Regime change — does it sound familiar? This does not resemble previous Israeli strikes on neigboring countries that were on the verge of achieving nuclear capabilities. The strike on Iraq’s nuclear reactor under Prime Minister Begin in 1981 was never intended to topple Saddam Hussein. The strike on Syria’s nuclear reactor under Prime Minister Olmert in 2007 was never intended to topple Bashar al-Assad.

Israel’s current effort has more echoes of the U.S. strike on Saddam Hussein’s Iraq, excluding a ground invasion. In Iraq, the regime was changed. But the cost in money and lives was massive and the process arduous and long. So much so, that it drained America’s appetite for preemptive wars – or regime changes – however justified they may be.

Regime change – Israel shouldn’t define this as its war’s objective, because it’s a goal beyond its means. And if there is one crucial lesson to be learned from John Lewis Gaddis’ book., “On Grand Strategy,” it’s that aligning goals with means is the most important element of a grand strategy.

And yet — what else could lead to a stable arrangement that wouldn’t require Israel to continuously wage war against Iran? It’s not at all clear that such an arrangement exists. In a week of tremendous tactical successes, that’s a troubling thought.

Something I wrote in Hebrew

After two days of triumph, I used the verse chosen as this war’s name, to remind my fellow Israelis that biblical verses tell us how mighty we can be, but also warn us that the true outcome of war is only known when the war ends (and sometimes later). Here’s how I wrote it:

No doubt. “Lo, a people that rises like a lioness, Leaps up like a lion, Rests not till it has feasted on prey And drunk the blood of the slain” (Numbers 23:24). But also: “The king of Israel replied, ‘Tell him: Let not him who girds on his sword boast like him who ungirds it!’” (1 Kings 20, 11).

A week’s numbers

This is from before the war. And yet, it is telling: Israelis are behind the idea that a nuclearized Iran is a scenario that must be prevented. 

A reader’s response

Hassan B. wrote: “Don’t you understand that Israel does America’s dirty work?” My response: And what if it does? This is an event much bigger that the average social media wars of rants. So let’s stay focused.

Shmuel Rosner is senior political editor. For more analysis of Israeli and international politics, visit Rosner’s Domain at jewishjournal.com/rosnersdomain.