Joe Biden’s new year seemed to be off to such a good start. The Democrats’ better-than-expected showing in the November elections had quieted talk of a primary challenge to his reelection bid, the brawl among House Republicans to determine their new leader had created a contrast that elevated him in the eyes of voters, and he had begun to stake out centrist turf on immigration and other policy matters to position himself for the 2024 campaign.
But that was before the disclosure and subsequent controversy surrounding the classified documents from his vice presidency that have turned up in nonsecured locations. The furor will create all sorts of political problems for the president at just the time when it appeared that he was developing some post midterm momentum and he was establishing himself as a grown-up alternative to what many swing voters saw as disorganized and feckless GOP House revolutionaries.
Biden’s advisors have worked hard to highlight the distinctions between the president’s situation and that of his predecessor, who left the White House with a trove of sensitive information last January. Donald Trump had retained in his possession a much larger number of documents at Mar-a-Lago than Biden had in his possession and Biden has been much more cooperative in his dealings with legal authorities once this information was discovered. But Republicans have adroitly seized on the parallels between the two men.
An ongoing debate about the specifics of the two situations does Biden no favors: it overshadows his message about the economy, Ukraine and other topics that work to his benefit. Instead, the controversy traps him in an ongoing argument in which his strongest argument is that he was less irresponsible than Trump.
The greatest damage caused by this uproar is that it undermines the central premise of Biden’s presidency. In a country that is essentially divided ideologically and politically, Biden’s most important promise in the 2020 campaign was his intention of restoring “normalcy” to the White House and to the country. Voters who were fatigued, frustrated or embarrassed by Trump’s antics could be reassured that Biden would restore a missing dignity to the Oval Office.
Biden’s core argument was one of competence. The hard-core Trump voters didn’t care: they were excited by their hero’s combative and politically incorrect manner. But the voters who decide elections ultimately turned to Biden less out of ideological conviction than a need for reliability and reassurance that adults would be in charge of the country again. They wanted a president with the experience and maturity to lead the nation forward in a less disruptive and dangerous way.
So it was not a coincidence that Biden’s first significant nosedive in the polls took place immediately following his administration’s botched withdrawal from Afghanistan during his first summer in office. Even though most Americans agreed with the president’s decision to leave, the manner in which the departure of U.S. troops was handled and the subsequent mass bloodshed caused this country’s voters to question whether Biden’s years in government had actually prepared him for the challenges of the presidency. While the easing of inflation (along with Trump’s ongoing controversies) has been the biggest contributor to Biden’s improved standing, his successful handling of the war in Ukraine has been of huge importance in restoring his credibility – and competence – in the eyes of the voters.
Now, that hard-earned reputation might be slipping away again. Biden has been greatly helped by the ongoing contrast that Trump provides him, but the news coverage of the January 6 investigations has subsided, at least for the time being, and the uproar over the Mar-a-Lago documents has been neutralized. So that advantage is murkier than it was in either 2020 or 2022.
Trump has rescued Biden before and he can certainly do it again. Right now, though, it appears that Biden is the one throwing a life preserver to his old nemesis.
Biden and his team need to figure out a way to get this behind them – and fast. But that is beginning to look less and less likely. Trump has rescued Biden before and he can certainly do it again. Right now, though, it appears that Biden is the one throwing a life preserver to his old nemesis, not the other way around.
Dan Schnur is a Professor at the University of California – Berkeley, USC and Pepperdine. Join Dan for his weekly webinar “Politics in the Time of Coronavirus” (www.lawac.org) on Tuesdays at 5 PM.
