Netanyahu Ahead, But Coalition Results Too Close to Call

1. Exit polls predict a Netanyahu government of 61. Or a tie. It is very close. As close as an election can get. And the night is long. It is quite possible that we will not know for sure if Netanyahu is king or if a fifth election is more likely. Whatever the case, the parties who wanted nothing to do with Netanyahu do not have a coalition.

2. In Israel, we do not elect prime ministers; we elect parties that must form coalitions. The more parties we have, the more complications we must overcome. The more our leaders vow not to sit in this or that coalition, the less likely it becomes that a functioning coalition could be formed. That’s why Netanyahu is the only candidate with a real option to form a coalition. The parties against him cannot form a coalition. Too many of them vowed not to sit together. He can form a coalition (if exit polls are to be believed) — a very narrow one. A coalition in which each member can make trouble and force the hand of the prime minister. A coalition that most voters did not want — and may still get.

3. Israel is a country that leads the world in COVID-19 vaccinations and is basically in the process of going back to almost regular life. Under such circumstances, Netanyahu should have won the election hands down. The fact that he didn’t tells you something about the way Israelis feel (most of them did not want him to continue). The fact that he prevailed tells you that sometimes the important things (vaccines) can tip the scales in favor of a relatively unpopular politician.

The important things (vaccines) can tip the scales in favor of a relatively unpopular politician.

4.  Voter turnout was relatively low. Not historically low — just relatively low. It was low mostly because many Arab voters decided not to bother voting. This is significant for several reasons. One, because it signals to the Arab leadership that its constituency isn’t happy with its performance. Two, because it follows a split: the main Joint List was not able to stay intact and Islamist Raam ran a separate campaign. The voters tend to prefer unity over splits. Three, because recent election cycles brought to the fore the dilemma of Arab voters and leaders, many of whom seem to tire of the old formula of we-vote-but-it-has-no-impact. Arab voters want their parties to have influence, and that can only happen if Arab politicians drop their focus on the “Palestinian issue” and begin to focus on local concerns of Israeli Arab voters.

Is this change forthcoming? The low Arab turnout — and expected representation — could be a sign that it is.

5. A narrow coalition is not necessarily a fragile or unstable coalition. Sometimes, the small advantage can be an effective glue for the parties who take part in the coalition, because while each of them knows that he has the power to force the hand of the partners, they also knows that forcing the hand of the partners could mean the end of the coalition.

So, if the polls are accurate, and Netanyahu gets to stay in power (after tough negotiations), don’t bet on a short-lived government. It can be a long lived, stable and coherent. Is it better than a fifth election? Stability is important, but other things are also important. I guess the answer depends on one’s like or dislike of the outcome.

Stay tuned.