Jewish Trump Voters: More About Israel Than About Religion

Counting and debating the Jewish vote in the American presidential election is a somewhat silly — yet persistent — exercise in which I participated more than once or twice (I even wrote a short book about it). Does it really matter whether the exact share of Jews who voted for Trump is 20% or 30%? Is it surprising that a J-Street poll says 20 and a Republican Jewish Coalition (RJC) poll says 30?

In Florida, close to half of all Jews voted for Trump, according to the exit polls. Jews comprised 5% of the total vote cast in the state, which means that 20% more Jews for Trump in 2020 could mean about 1% of the total. That’s not insignificant in a close race. It is still not the reason Trump ended up triumphant in Florida. In other states with large Jewish communities, such as New York, the significance of the vote share is even lower.

Different polls of Jews have different methodologies and definitions of Jewishness, which can easily explain certain gaps between them. Just the other day, I wrote about the fascinating alliance between Orthodox Jews and the Trump movement. What the numbers in all of the new polls show could lead to another important and surprising conclusion: the gap between Democratic-leaning Jews and Republican-leaning Jews is, in many cases, about Israel. And that’s a serious gap that seems to deepen with time. As Jonathan Tobin wrote a few days ago: “People can agree to disagree about policy choices. However, the gap between thinking someone is akin to Joseph Goebbels (as Biden termed him in an interview) and believing Trump to be a righteous gentile is a clash of worldviews, not a polite disagreement.”

Take, for example, question eight in the RJC survey: “which issue would you say most impacted who you decided to vote for?” Twenty-three percent of Jewish Trump voters said Israel was the issue that “most impacted” their vote. Point eight percent of Biden Jewish voters said the same. Is this just a coincidence, based on the fact that Orthodox voters (who tilted heavily towards Trump) are more inclined to consider Israel an important matter? Not really. Look at this graph. It tells you that Israel matters more than the religious stream. In fact, Conservative and Reform Jews who voted for Trump prioritize Israel in a share similar to the Orthodox.

And here is a similar finding from the J Street poll. The question is: “Below is a list of issues facing our country today. Please mark which TWO of these issues were the most important for you in deciding your vote in the Presidential election between Joe Biden and Donald Trump.” In total, 5% of Jews marked Israel as one of the top two issues. Of those voting for Biden, it was 1%. Of those voting for Trump, it was 97%. Of non-Orthodox Jews who voted for Trump, it was 95%. Almost as high as for Orthodox Trump voters.

Of course, there is a huge gap between Orthodox and non-Orthodox Jews over matters related to Israel. Here is one example from the J Street survey: support for a J Street-designed final status agreement between Israel and the Palestinians.

The authors of the J Street poll presented a final status formula for the “conflict” and asked Jews whether they’d support such a solution. It includes a demilitarized Palestinian state in the West Bank and Gaza, internationally recognized borders based on the 1967 line with land swaps, and more. All in all, 75% of U.S. Jews would support such a convenient agreement (which Israelis and Palestinians tend to reject). In the graph below, you can see that Trump voters tend to oppose the proposal and Orthodox voters even more so.

But notice the last column of the graph. There is a clear similarity between those who said Israel is a key factor in their vote and those who voted for Trump. In both cases, the share of support for a final status agreement is about half and half. Among non-Orthodox Jews who prioritize Israel, 40% oppose the final status proposal — making it seem that prioritization of Israel means more than denomination, not just when it comes to voting but also when it comes to political views of Israel-related matters.