The Israel File Appendix: Joint Decline

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Oftentimes, we also post an appendix to the File, to update you on the political situation with more detail and nuance. Our update follows the updated table of poll-averages. Note that the table includes both a simple average of the last 10 polls, and a weighted average that takes into account the time of the poll, it’s sample size and other things. So, first let’s look at the table:

What do we see here? Here are five comments:

1. For now, the only feasible combination of parties that gets more than 60 seats is the classic coalition of right-religious parties.
2. To imagine an alternative coalition one has to believe in one of two scenarios: a dramatic change in the polls (or a discovery that the polls were way off), or a coalition that includes parties who currently seem unable to sit with one another (for example, a Bennet coalition supported by the Arab Joint List).
3. Apropos Arab voters: the downward trend of seats for the Joint List continues. In the last three polls in was 12, 12, 13. You’d have to go about one month back to find a poll where it gets 15 (that’s its current number of seats). Enthusiasm among Arab voters for the party – that is torn by internal debates – seem to be low.
4. Likud’s decline was halted at about 28 seats. Yamina’s rise was halted at about 22 seats. With such numbers, Netanyahu is still the likelier candidate to get the mandate to form the next coalition.
5. We don’t yet know if other parties will be joining a new race, or if notable personalities who hinted that they intend to run (such as the Mayor of Tel Aviv) will be joining existing parties. If it’s the former, there is a risk of decline for all parties of the center-left and possibly Yamina too).