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Poll Update: Israel’s Coalition Stands at Less than 60 Seats

[additional-authors]
July 26, 2020
JERUSALEM, ISRAEL – MAY 24: Israelis hold flags and signs as they protest against Israeli Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu on May 24, 2020 in Jerusalem, Israel. The prime minister, who strongly denies the charges of bribery, fraud and breach of trust, was recently sworn in to office at the head of a national unity government formed with his opponent Benny Gantz. (Photo by Amir Levy/Getty Images)

Demonstrations against the government all over the country do not draw huge crowds but receive a lot of media attention. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu believes this is a media ploy to take him down.

These demonstrations add to the general atmosphere of distrust in the government and political instability. Within the ruling coalition there is little harmony and speculation abounds about the possibility of another election. Of immediate concern is the budget. By law, a new government must pass a budget after 100 days, which means that if by late August there is no budget there will be no government. Alas, Netanyahu insists on passing a budget for the remainder of 2020, while his coalition partner Blue and White’s Benny Gantz insists on a budget for 2020-2021 (as agreed when the coalition was formed). If they cannot resolve this, elections will be held in November (imagine that, President Donald Trump and Netanyahu running for election at the same time).

What Netanyahu wants: Last week, in a seemingly technical, yet highly significant decision, the court set the date for Netanyahu’s trial for January 2021. This means that Netanyahu is going to have to be in court three days a week, not a proper routine for a person who also must run the country. One way for Netanyahu to avoid a trial, maybe the only way, is to hold new elections, form a new coalition and pass legislation that somehow puts the trial on hold. It’s tricky, but a desperate politician might believe this is the right path for him (and the country).

Government approval: Elections can be tricky for Netanyahu as the pandemic takes its political toll. In the poll averages for July, for the first time the coalition received below 60 seats. The average still gives the right-religious bloc a slight edge. It can (theoretically) form a 63-member coalition.

 

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