May 25, 2019

Israel’s Election Night Handbook: A Fifth Netanyahu Victory

The following comments will be updated throughout the night. So please, come back to get a clearer picture of the results (Latest Update: 07:00AM Israel Time, 9:00PM LA Time).

 

Exit Polls / Results

The larger bloc is the right-religious bloc. Some parties are still hanging close to the electoral threshold. This was a long night, but the more we see, the clearer the picture.

 

 

Netanyahu’s coalition: 67

 

Big Winner

Netanyahu. A rightwing coalition can be relatively easily assembled. Gantz cannot form a coalition. When he made his victory speech, the crowd shouted: “he is a magician”. Well – he is.

 

Other Winners

All Small Survivors: If the exit polls get it right, the following parties were saved from drowning bellow the Electoral Threshold: Kulanu, Israel Beiteinu, Shas, Meretz. It was not easy for them.

 

The Next Coalition

One bloc has clear advantage as it aims to form a coalition. The following graph is based on 94% of the vote.

 

 

Losers

Benny Gantz is not really a loser, In a short period of time he managed to form a new party and lead it to an impressive achievement. He could not alter Israel’s basic political tendencies. He could not convince the voters that he is could be a PM better than Netanyahu.

The Arab Voter decided to stay home. The outcome, as one can expect, is less Arab representation in the Knesset. From a highpoint 13 seats in the outgoing Knesset to less than 10 seats in the incoming Knesset. The leaders of the Arab parties ought to reconsider their decision to split into two lists rather than one unified list. The voters ought to think if such political apathy serves their interests.

The Labor Party managed to get 6 seats.

Naftali Bennet barely made it (or did not make it) into the next Knesset. His decision to abandon the Jewish Home and form a new party, The New Right, and his ambition to become the right’s new leader, suffered a huge blow tonight. His partner, Minister Ayelet Shaked, agreed to follow his lead. She was hesitant to begin with, and would probably recalculate her own path forward, possibly alone.

Moshe Feiglin, the leader of libertarian Zehut, was an activist, he was a member of Likud, he’s been around for a long time, always on the margins. He expected to get 6 seats, but does not get much in real world.

 

For more coverage on the 2019 Israeli election, click here.