A Coalition’s First Test: Can It Save Itself – and Israel?

Israel’s new coalition is ideologically complicated. It includes parties from right to left, it includes Jews and Arabs. The opposition, a much more coherent bloc of right-religious parties, will attempt to test the coalition. And the first test is quite interesting, because it is a test for both. It is a test of partisanship versus the national interest.

On Wednesday, the government failed to extend a law that bars Palestinians who marry Israeli citizens from receiving citizenship. This law is controversial as it is essential. Without it, hundreds of thousands of Palestinians will become Israeli citizens through marrying Arab Israelis from across the 1967 line. For good reasons – the state mentions mostly security reasons, but it is clear that the core concern is demography – Israel decided to preempt such development by banning it. Support for the ban is overwhelming: the left-leaning Zionist Camp supported it when it was reissued back in 2016. The rightwing parties all support it.

But two parties in the new coalition have a problem with this ban. Raam, the Arab party, and Meretz, the most leftist member of the unity bloc. Former Meretz leaders called the ban “a disgrace” and argued that it is the product of a “rightwing government that hates Arabs”. Raam represents voters who could benefit from removal of the ban (by marrying Palestinians and making them Israeli citizens). In fact, Raam is not ready to support the extension of the ban, and talks are ongoing to find a compromise with which the party can live.

This would not have been a problem had the opposition – Likud, the Religious Zionist party, Shas, United Torah Judaism – voted their conscience. They all support the ban more enthusiastically than most coalition parties. But at least for now, they refuse to vote their conscience and insist on voting like politicians – against the coalition, which means, in this case, against a law that they deem essential to the wellbeing of Israel as a Jewish state.

At least for now, they refuse to vote their conscience and insist on voting like politicians – against the coalition, which means, in this case, against a law that they deem essential to the wellbeing of Israel as a Jewish state.

Coalition parties are furious with this development. Interior Minister Ayelet Shaked threatened to send the law to the floor, risking a failure, as a test to the opposition. Let the rightwing prove that it has nothing to do with ideology and everything to do with partisan politics. But the opposition have a counter argument to make: we said all along that the new coalition is dangerous for Israel, and now you see why. It can’t even pass a law that a vast majority of citizens see as essential to Israel’s survival – so why should we, the opposition, save it from the embarrassment?

A possible outcome would be a deal. The coalition will get the support of opposition parties for this essential ban, in exchange for something the opposition parties want, such as an arrangement that legalizes certain settlements. Of course, there’s a problem with such a deal. Once more, it will expose the ideological rifts within the unity coalition. Parties such as Yamina and New Hope might be able to swallow the deal. But Labor and Meretz wouldn’t.

And so, another possible outcome is a parliamentary equivalent of a high noon duel, with the coalition daring the opposition to thwart the law, and the opposition daring the coalition to test their insistence on reciprocation. The obvious loser could be Israel. If the law doesn’t pass – we lose. If the coalition crumbles – we lose. It’s only been a week, and it’s just a first test out of many to come.