It was not easy, but they finally signed the agreement. Benjamin Netanyahu and Benny Gantz agreed to form a government. Likud and Blue and White will become partners, joined by two Charedi parties, two members of Labor, two former members of Telem, and one member of Gesher. Yamina, the right-religious party, is likely to stay out of the coalition. With six members, four of whom believe that they deserve to be ministers, there is not enough room for this party (and its too big of an ego). More than 30 ministers will sit at the table — politicians with a strong incentive to keep the coalition of about 70 together. At least for a while.
A few notes on the agreement:
1. Gantz is slated to become the next prime minister after 18 months with Netanyahu at the helm. Blue and White lawyers spent much of their time devising a legal framework that will prevent Netanyahu from denying Gantz his right. Can this legal safety net hold? It is too early to know, but very few people believe that Netanyahu intends to let the general be prime minister. And while there’s no doubt that Gantz hired good lawyers, the political system has a way of circumventing legal obstacles. What happens in 18 months will be determined by the political calculations and the preponderance of power at the time of decision. Agreements between politicians are no more than suggestion.
2. Remember the many pundits who claimed — pretending to know — that Netanyahu will “never sign” the agreement, and does not want unity? They were wrong. But that will not stop them from pretending to know what’s coming next. Why were they wrong? They were thinking with their ideology, not their information. The truth was simple: Netanyahu wanted to keep his options open until the last minute and then decide. When the moment arrived, he calculated that a year and a half of certainty is better than four years in doubt, because even though Likud rides high in the polls, going into an election with 20% unemployment is risky. Too risky.
3. Blue and White agreed that Netanyahu could initiate annexation of parts of Judea and Samaria in the early summer. The assumption concerning this move ought to be similar to the one about unity. Netanyahu wants it, and also understand that there are risks involved. He will not make a final decision until the actual time comes. If circumstances allow — the coronavirus crisis, relations with the Trump administration and other factors – Israel might be on track to annex parts of the West bank.
4. The debate concerning the legal system and its responsibilities was one of the main stumbling blocks during the round of negotiations. Within Likud (and Yamina) there are people who believe that the time has come for reforming this system. Blue and White decided to play defense and use the issue as an excuse to join the government (we must save the court). Ultimately, the parties reached a compromise for a simple reason: Netanyahu never made the fight against the court his highest priority. In fact, for many years he was one of the most conservative leaders within Likud when it comes to the court. Similarly, Gantz is not fully convinced that all complaints against the legal system are completely off the mark. This was more a fight over pretense than content.
5. At least in theory, Netanyahu just signed the date of his own expiration. Psychologically speaking, this could be a significant step.
6. And no fourth election. That’s the main thing. Israel needs a year or two of quiet.
