The Candidates and the Jews

Now that the presidential debate is behind us and we turn toward the final weeks of this unprecedented campaign, it’s worth taking a moment to assess where the two candidates stand with Jewish voters and the potential impact of the Israel-Hamas war on the election. Even though the Jewish community comprises only 2.5% of the nation’s population, larger concentrations of Jews in key swing states like Pennsylvania, Arizona and Nevada could have an outsized impact on the final outcome. So let’s dig a bit deeper:

Donald Trump told the Republican Jewish Coalition (RJC) last week that he expected to receive roughly half of the Jewish vote in November, which seems somewhat fanciful given the 20-30% that exit polls showed him receiving in his previous campaigns. But even if the post-Gaza political environment has not changed quite that dramatically, there’s no question that the war has upended American politics, played a contributing role in the premature end of Joe Biden’s political career, and noticeably changed the way both Trump and Kamala Harris have navigated the campaign trail.

In his speech to the RJC, Trump reiterated an argument that he and many other Republicans have made over the years: that the GOP’s stronger support for Israel should lead to increased backing from Jewish voters. This contention is based on the supposition that Israel is the most important issue to most American Jews, which public opinion polling has shown not to be the case for most of the 21st century. We know that most Jewish voters tend to prioritize domestic policy – especially social and cultural issues – more heavily when weighing their vote. This has frustrated Trump greatly and has led to his use of highly-charged language directed toward our community, which leads to even more polarization.

But while Democrats have happily scooped up large majorities of the Jewish vote for decades by focusing on issues closer to home, Harris’ team made an odd decision last month when they tapped Middle East policy veteran Ilan Goldenberg as their campaign liaison to the Jewish community. Goldenberg, who was born in Jerusalem and renounced his Israeli citizenship to work in the Defense Department in the Obama Administration, has been Harris’ advisor on Middle Eastern issues during her time as vice president but does not have any background in American politics. Despite his long history and deep knowledge of Israel and the surrounding region, selecting someone without any previous campaign experience is an unusual choice, especially in an election that is expected to be excruciatingly close.

Given how the Gaza war has intensified the deep divisions within the Democratic Party over the U.S. role in the region, it’s entirely possible that Harris chose someone for this role precisely because he has not been involved in the party’s internecine battles in the past and neither pro-Israel nor pro-Palestinian factions see Goldenberg as part of the opposing camp. But he has been a fierce critic of Benjamin Netanyahu in the past (as have many other Democrats who are strong supporters of Israel), which may provide opportunities for the Trump campaign to pick up some additional Jewish support on this hyper-polarized political landscape. 

Make no mistake: Trump will not win the Jewish vote or come anywhere close, his spectacular predictions notwithstanding. But just as his campaign has made inroads among Black and Latino voters, even slightly decreased margins among Jews in the highly-contested states mentioned above could have a tremendous impact. In a campaign in which every vote counts, and the Harris team has spared no effort to assemble the most talented and experienced team for every other role, Goldenberg’s lack of political experience makes him a potentially risky hire. If Harris comes up short and narrowly loses one or more of those battleground states, her advisors will face questions about why they did not opt for a more conventional candidate for this position.

Trump will not win the Jewish vote or come anywhere close. But even slightly decreased margins among Jews in highly-contested states could have a tremendous impact. 

Ironically, Goldenberg’s selection seems to demonstrate the Harris campaign’s belief of the heightened importance of Israel in Jewish voters’ considerations. It would be even more ironic if those Middle East-focused voters helped elect her opponent.

Dan Schnur is the U.S. Politics Editor for the Jewish Journal. He teaches courses in politics, communications, and leadership at UC Berkeley, USC and Pepperdine. He hosts the monthly webinar “The Dan Schnur Political Report” for the Los Angeles World Affairs Council & Town Hall. Follow Dan’s work at www.danschnurpolitics.com.