Most Israelis Support Annexation, Despite Fear of Violence

1. As American Jewish leaders and organizations ponder their response to an Israeli annexation in the West Bank (if an annexation materializes), they might want to take into account that most Israelis support this move: close to 60% of Jews.

Here is a breakdown, from a poll released by the Israel Democracy Institute:

2. About a quarter of the Israeli population say they don’t need to wait for American approval. Predictably, Yamina voters, of the religious-right have this view. Somewhat surprisingly, Haredi United Torah Judaism voters also have similar views (49%).

More than half of these right wing Israelis believe that violence is to be expected as a result of annexation. They are not intimidated by the threat of violence and would still go ahead with the plan. Israeli Jews who believe violence is likely to occur and still support annexation is just slightly lower than the share of Israeli Jews who do not believe that violence is likely to occur and support annexation.

3. I really hope you had a chance to listen to my conversation with Matti Friedman, marking the 20^th anniversary of Israel’s withdrawal from Southern Lebanon. The discussion is fascinating, but we had it without a clear idea of the public’s view on the matter. Now, we have these numbers:

About half of the Israeli public (48%) thinks the decision to unilaterally evacuate Southern Lebanon without an agreement with the Lebanese or Syrian government was the correct decision. About a third (31.5%) say it was an incorrect decision. Right-wingers think believe it was a mistake. Young people think it was a mistake. The generation that served in Lebanon think it was the right decision. That’s Matti’s (and my) generation.

4. Forty-two percent of the Israeli public think that the withdrawal from Lebanon strengthened the Palestinians’ perception that Israel only understands force, thereby encouraging terror attacks. Notably, 46% percent of Jews have this view, including almost two thirds of right-wing Israelis and about half of centrist Israelis. Those who believe the withdrawal encouraged terrorism also believe that the withdrawal was a mistake (78%).

Why is this interesting? Because in the same poll you have Israelis who say that terrorism doesn’t matter, and that annexation should move ahead regardless of the prospect of violence —while at the same time, basically the same people, argue that a move out of Lebanon was a mistake because it ignited violence.

5. What’s the explanation for such seemingly contradictory positions?

1. It is about the land. The respondents are consistent in wanting to keep more land under Israeli jurisdiction. So, they oppose withdrawal from Lebanon, and support annexation, and violence is just a side effect of what they truly want.
2. Violence makes a real impression only when you feel it. The Second Intifada — a possible outcome of the withdrawal from Lebanon — was very real. Future violence as a result of annexation is just a theoretical possibility. So, Israelis oppose what they blame for real violence and support what they suspect might bring about theoretic violence.
3. There can be a merit-based argument that: A second Intifada was too high a price for the withdrawal from Lebanon; a third Intifada is a tolerable price for annexation.