fbpx
Wednesday, June 3, 2020

Israel’s Election Handbook: Rockets and Smears

Enjoying this article?

You'll love our roundtable.


By submitting this form, you are consenting to receive marketing emails from: Jewish Journal, 3250 Wilshire Boulevard, Los Angeles, CA, 90010, http://www.jewishjournal.com. You can revoke your consent to receive emails at any time by using the SafeUnsubscribe® link, found at the bottom of every email. Emails are serviced by Constant Contact

We call this format a Timesaver Guide to Israel’s Coming Elections. This will be a usual feature on Rosner’s Domain until April 9. We hope to make it short, factual, devoid of election hype, and of he-said-she-said no news, unimportant inside baseball gossip.

Bottom Line

Rockets come from Gaza, smears from all political parties. At the moment, both do not seem to have much impact on Israel’s voters.

Main News

The Gaza situation is the main news. So far, an all-out breakout of violence was avoided. But this can change any minute. Today and tomorrow (Friday, Saturday) are especially sensitive, as Gazans plan to have rallies near the border.

Blue and White leaders suspect that Likud is spying on them. Likud tries to paint Blue and White leaders as paranoid.

The opposition is still trying to utilize the submarine controversy against the PM. Likud attempts to convince the public that there is a parallel scandal involving Benny Gantz.

Developments to Watch

Material: Gaza. Benjamin Netanyahu is exposed to attacks by his main rivals – all of which argue that his policies are too mild. Sudden eruption of a larger scale military operation could impact the voters in unforeseeable ways (or not at all).

Political: Blue and White fails to gain. It fails in its quest to build a significant and consistent advantage in the polls. If the chances of the party to become a ruling party seem diminished, many so-called “strategic voters” might go back to voting for the parties they like, rather than voting for the party they do not like as much in search of victory. In other words: the more Gantz declines, the higher the danger of a dynamic that could lead to ultimate collapse.

Legal: It is still unclear if a formal investigation of the PM’s part in the submarine purchase is forthcoming. This could be an important development, but time for it is running out.

The Blocs and Their Meaning

The closer we get to election day, the more technical we must become. Let’s begin with the two main parties. Both need to convince the president to hand them the key to form a coalition. Netanyahu hope to have a case – in the form of an easier more obvious path to a coalition. Gantz can counter this case by getting a lot more seats in the Knesset. One or two more might not be enough. This graph shows all polls since the beginning of March. For now, what we get in the polls is a closing gap between the two main parties. If the outcome is almost a tie, or a tie, Gantz has little chance of even getting a chance at forming the next coalition.

And here are the polls of the last three days, and what they tell us about the head to head battle between the two main parties. The last column is the averages based on these polls.

Next: the wildest of all wild cards. Many parties are going up and down in ways that put them in real danger. They might cross the electoral threshold of 3.25% or might not. They might get in with four seats or more and might not. If Kulanu gets 3.24% of the vote, the right-wing bloc loses close to four seats. If Balad-Raam does not get in, the anti-Netanyahu camp shrinks by three to four seats (note that the averages presented here are somewhat misleading. When a party does not close the threshold in a poll we count it as zero  seats. In reality, zero seats usually means that the party got 2-3% of the vote, not 0%).

The electoral threshold could easily become the determining factor in this election. If such thing happens, all bets and predictions are off.

 

Last but not least: the blocs. Specifically, the question of whether Netanyahu is going to be strong enough to declare victory on election day. To do such thing two factors must be considered. 1. Does the right-religious camp has more than 60 seats. 2. Is this a reliable conglomerate of parties that would all be committed to forming a right-religious coalition.

Since we last checked, Netanyahu’s position improved somewhat. Based on polls published in the last three days (seven polls) we can say that 1. He has a coalition. 2. He is close to having a coalition even if one of the two most problematic parties – Kulanu and Zehut – make trouble. 3. This still does not cover for a case of electoral threshold complications (for example, if Israel Beiteinu ends up not getting in). 4. This coalition will be unruly and possibly unstable and very right-wing. 5. For Gantz, forming a coalition seems almost impossible (that is to say, in a polite way, impossible).

 

 

Enjoyed this article?

You'll love our roundtable.


By submitting this form, you are consenting to receive marketing emails from: Jewish Journal, 3250 Wilshire Boulevard, Los Angeles, CA, 90010, http://www.jewishjournal.com. You can revoke your consent to receive emails at any time by using the SafeUnsubscribe® link, found at the bottom of every email. Emails are serviced by Constant Contact

Latest Articles

June 5, 2020

CLICK HERE FOR FULLSCREEN VERSION

There Are Now 500,000 Negative Tweets About George Soros Every Day. Many Claim He’s Funding George Floyd Protests.

Right-wing conspiracy theorists are increasingly claiming that George Soros is funding recent protests and riots across the United States in the aftermath of the...

Rep. Steve King, Who Condoned White Supremacists and Anti-Semites, Loses Iowa Primary

Rep. Steve King of Iowa, whose record includes inflammatory comments condoning white supremacists and anti-Semites, lost a hotly contested Republican primary. King, a nine-term congressman,...

The Ripple Effect: Mirrors

It has long become clear to me that my children are a mirror of me, my relationship with my husband and my relationships with...

Michael Stuhlbarg’s Role in ‘Shirley’ is the Latest in a Long Line of Jewish Characters

Stuhlbargs says Judaism “is a social and communal aspect of my life in terms of observance, much more than a devout religious experience.”

Most Israelis Support for Annexation, Despite Fear of Violence

A second Intifada was too high a price for the withdrawal from Lebanon; a third Intifada is a tolerable price for annexation.

Moav Vardi: Israel and the world

Moav Vardi describes the Israeli population's relationship with its allies and opponent countries around the world. Moav Vardi is the Chief International Correspondent in Kan...

So Much Pain for a Holiday of Joy

The Jews have been enslaved.  They escape, leave their homes in Egypt, cross the Red Sea, and travel through the desert to Sinai for...

Interfaith Leaders to Gather in Santa Monica in Response to Trump’s ‘Religious Stunt’

Los Angeles clergy and spiritual leaders plan to gather at Mt. Olive Lutheran Church in Santa Monica Wednesday, June 3 in response to what...

The SAGE Woman Creating 20-Minute Online Classes

Esther Hershcovich, holds down a full-time job at a Tel Aviv architectural firm while simultaneously focusing on her global startup — SAGE. Originally, Hershcovich envisioned...

Culture

Michael Stuhlbarg’s Role in ‘Shirley’ is the Latest in a Long Line of Jewish Characters

Stuhlbargs says Judaism “is a social and communal aspect of my life in terms of observance, much more than a devout religious experience.”

Author Says Hitler Is Not the Only One to Blame for Atrocities

Historian Robert Gellately asks, how did ordinary people become Nazis?

‘Law & Order’ Creator Dick Wolf Fires Writer for Racist Rants

Dick Wolf will not tolerate racial intolerance on his watch. The “Law & Order” creator fired writer Craig Gore from the TV franchise’s upcoming...

Make a Drive-in Theater for the Kids at Home

Drive-in theaters are experiencing a resurgence in popularity because people are able to enjoy a movie from the safety of their cars. Well, how...

Steven Lowenstein, Distinguished Jewish Historian and National Book Award Winner, Dies at 75

Steven Lowenstein, a distinguished Jewish historian and accomplished social worker died on May 31, the 8th day of Sivan at the age of 75. Born...

Latest Articles
Latest

June 5, 2020

CLICK HERE FOR FULLSCREEN VERSION

There Are Now 500,000 Negative Tweets About George Soros Every Day. Many Claim He’s Funding George Floyd Protests.

Right-wing conspiracy theorists are increasingly claiming that George Soros is funding recent protests and riots across the United States in the aftermath of the...

Rep. Steve King, Who Condoned White Supremacists and Anti-Semites, Loses Iowa Primary

Rep. Steve King of Iowa, whose record includes inflammatory comments condoning white supremacists and anti-Semites, lost a hotly contested Republican primary. King, a nine-term congressman,...

The Ripple Effect: Mirrors

It has long become clear to me that my children are a mirror of me, my relationship with my husband and my relationships with...

Michael Stuhlbarg’s Role in ‘Shirley’ is the Latest in a Long Line of Jewish Characters

Stuhlbargs says Judaism “is a social and communal aspect of my life in terms of observance, much more than a devout religious experience.”

Hollywood

Harvey Weinstein Accused of Sexual Assault by 4 More Women, Including Minor in New York Lawsuit

A new lawsuit filed against Harvey Weinstein in New York city accuses the former film producer of raping four women, including one who was...

Lil Dicky Is the Larry David of Rap in His Show ‘Dave’

If you haven’t heard of the comic rapper Lil Dicky, and you are at least tangentially interested in rap or comedy, you should familiarize...


‘Love & Stuff’ Sees Life, Death and Motherhood Through a Jewish Lens

How do you cope with both the death of a parent and the artifacts she left behind, while preparing to become a mother yourself...

Podcasts

Moav Vardi: Israel and the world

Moav Vardi describes the Israeli population's relationship with its allies and opponent countries around the world. Moav Vardi is the Chief International Correspondent in Kan...

Pandemic Times Episode 50: Dealing with a Crisis of Emotions

New David Suissa Podcast Every Morning. An expert on the psychology of emotions, Dr Reena Patel, discusses the chaotic times we are living through. How do...

More news and opinions than at a Shabbat dinner, right in your inbox.


By submitting this form, you are consenting to receive marketing emails from: Jewish Journal, 3250 Wilshire Boulevard, Los Angeles, CA, 90010, http://www.jewishjournal.com. You can revoke your consent to receive emails at any time by using the SafeUnsubscribe® link, found at the bottom of every email. Emails are serviced by Constant Contact

x