Since its inception, the religious dictatorship in Iran has never been entangled in such numerous and complex crises. Widening social divides, absolute poverty affecting two-thirds of the population, unprecedented inflation, systemic corruption, and the collapse of its international standing are all indicative of the regime’s deep internal and external erosion. According to statistics, 596 executions have been carried out since July alone, a clear sign of escalating crises and the regime’s attempt to suppress dissent through repression.

These crises can be examined through four main axes.

1. A Society on the Brink of Explosion

Iran is currently facing widespread and deep public dissatisfaction. According to a survey conducted by sources close to the regime, 92% of the population is dissatisfied. Poverty, unemployment, inflation, and systemic corruption, combined with brutal repression and poor governance, have pushed society to a breaking point.

The nationwide uprisings of recent years, particularly in 2019 and 2022, have demonstrated that the people see regime change as the only solution. These protests, often led by women and youth, are harbingers of an imminent social explosion. In an attempt to prevent another uprising, the regime has resorted to warmongering in the Middle East. However, this policy has now backfired and revealed its ineffectiveness. This situation represents conditions ripe for fundamental change in Iran.

2. An Economic Deadlock and the Inability to Reform

Structurally, the Iranian regime is incapable of implementing any meaningful economic reform. Real reforms require a minimum level of political freedom and transparency, which are fundamentally incompatible with the nature of this regime. Widespread unemployment, runaway inflation, and the collapse of the national currency have made daily life unbearable for the population.

For instance, since 2011, the price of food items has increased by 40 times, while investments in infrastructure, such as the power industry, have drastically declined. The significant increase in the military budget in the 2024-2025 budget bill, compared to sectors like education, healthcare, and transportation, highlights the regime’s war-driven priorities at the expense of meeting basic human needs.

3. The Collapse of Regional Influence

Regionally, the regime’s expansionist policies have failed. Iran’s proxy forces, such as Hezbollah, Hamas and the Houthis, have lost much of their effectiveness and no longer serve as tools of influence for the regime.

The fall of Bashar al-Assad in Syria has dealt a devastating blow to Iran’s regional strategy. The Iranian regime’s operations headquarters in Damascus, which orchestrated proxy wars in the Middle East, have now been dismantled. According to Mehdi Taeb, a senior official in the Revolutionary Guard’s intelligence unit, Syria was so strategically important to Iran that he stated: “If the enemy attacks us and we have to choose between keeping Syria or Khuzestan [Iran’s oil-rich province], we must prioritize Syria. Because by keeping Syria, we can also reclaim Khuzestan, but if we lose Syria, we will not even be able to hold Tehran”.

4. Organized Resistance and the Role of Resistance Units

Despite severe repression, the Iranian resistance has become an effective force. Resistance units, composed primarily of young people, are active throughout the country. These small groups of three to five members, organized locally, have the capacity to lead uprisings and mobilize street power to confront oppressive forces.

In Iran, resistance units provide the operational capacity needed to bring about the regime’s overthrow.

The Syrian revolution demonstrated that it is impossible to overthrow a brutal dictatorship without an organized resistance force. In Iran, resistance units provide the operational capacity needed to bring about the regime’s overthrow.

The Collapse of Survival Strategies

The regime’s survival has historically relied on three main pillars:

1. Internal Repression: The ongoing mass protests show that repression can no longer contain public dissatisfaction.
2. Regional Warmongering: The fall of Bashar al-Assad and the decline of proxy forces have stripped the regime of its key tools for regional influence.
3. Pursuit of nuclear weapons: This policy has further isolated the regime and could trigger military strikes against its nuclear facilities.

These strategies are now severely compromised and on the verge of total collapse.

The Fear of Iran Becoming Syria

The Iranian regime and its foreign supporters have frequently used the argument of Iran “becoming another Syria” as a fear tactic to discourage the international community from supporting change in Iran. However, experience has shown that this claim has no basis in reality.

Maryam Rajavi, leader of the National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI), challenged this “big lie” at an international conference, stating: “The main source of instability and destruction in the region is the Iranian regime itself. The alternative to this regime is not chaos, but a free and democratic Iran.”

An Iranian Solution for Democratic Change

The solution to this religious dictatorship lies in fundamental change, led by the protesting people and resistance units. The National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI), as the political arm of this movement, has proposed a clear plan for the post-regime period:

• Establishing a six-month provisional government to organize free elections.
• Drafting a new constitution based on freedom, equality, and the separation of religion and state.
• Abolishing the death penalty, ensuring social justice, and building a non-nuclear Iran.

The Iranian regime is facing a multidimensional crisis it cannot manage. The Iranian resistance does not ask the international community to take responsibility for change but simply to recognize the Iranian people’s right to resist the regime. By supporting the legitimate aspirations of the Iranian people, the free world can play a crucial role in establishing peace and stability in the region.

Hamid Enayat is a political scientist, specializing on the topic of Iran, who collaborates with the Iranian democratic opposition.