How Bibi Can Still Declare Victory

Since the massacre of Oct. 7 and the abduction of more than 250 hostages by Hamas terrorists, it has been excruciating to follow the news. There are moments, however, when even the most nerve-wracking of news stories reaches a kind of breaking point– when people rise up and say, “Enough is enough, something has to give.”

Israel reached that breaking point on Sunday.

After the bodies of six hostages were found in a Gaza tunnel, murdered by Hamas, the country erupted. Mass protests and nationwide strikes threatened to shut the economy down. Protesters blocked roads and marched on government buildings to express their fury at the continued lack of progress in the release of the remaining hostages.

As the news of the protests was breaking, I was at the Nova exhibit in Culver City to attend a vigil for the hostages who perished. I confess that after watching heart-wrenching testimonies of parents whose children are still being held captive, I got weak: “We must do everything in our power to get them out,” I thought. “Everything.”

Of course it’s not that simple. Israel is dealing with terrorists who don’t much care for human life, their own people included.

I have a sneaking suspicion, however, that one Hamas leader would like to stay alive: Yahya Sinwar, the Oct. 7 mastermind with the power to make a deal. These merchants of evil don’t operate from the “goodness of their heart.” They react only to force. The more they fear for their lives, the more likely they are to make a deal.

And God knows they’ve seen force: Since it entered Gaza more than 10 months ago, Israel has punished Hamas with a ferocity rarely seen even for a country that has been drenched in warfare since its very birth.

Should Bibi’s government now cash in on that military accomplishment and work to free the hostages? Or should it continue to play hardball and put a war of attrition ahead of the hostages?

With much of the country up in arms, it will be difficult for Netanyahu to buy more time, as he often likes to do. As the U.S. bears down on all the parties to make a deal, a moment of truth is approaching. For now, Bibi seems to be digging in and overriding his own defense establishment, which doesn’t augur well for the hostages.

Perhaps the biggest tragedy in a story full of tragedies is that it didn’t have to go this far.

The smartest take I’ve read on this comes from Graham Allison and Amos Yadlin, who argue in Foreign Affairs that “a cease-fire now would be a victory for Israel.” They even include a victory speech for Netanyahu, which is worth quoting in full:

“Israel has proven its strength and righteousness. I am leading the nation on the path to victory. Hamas in Gaza is defeated and has paid a very heavy price for the crimes of October 7. The heads of its terror armies and Hezbollah’s have been eliminated, once again proving that there is no hiding place beyond our watchful eye and no place too far for our long arm. After ten months, the goals of the war have been realized. Hamas has been dismantled as an organized military arm and functioning government and cannot repeat October 7. Therefore, we are signing a hostage deal that will bring our captives home and our fallen to a proper burial in Israel.

“This is the end of the war, but not the end of the campaign. I have reached an agreement with the United States that any rearmament of Hamas will be a recognized justification for Israel to renew the fighting in Gaza. I hope that the cessation of the war in Gaza will stop the fighting in the north, but we will not shy away from war if it is forced upon us by a significant response or ongoing attacks from Hezbollah and Iran. Now we are giving diplomacy a chance—to implement UN Security Council Resolution 1701, pushing Hezbollah north of the Litani River. Here too, I agreed with the United States that if the resolution is not implemented, we will receive full support for deploying the IDF to push the Shiite terrorist organization away from the northern border and to weaken its capabilities threatening Israel.

“At the same time, I am advancing a historic agreement with Saudi Arabia that will come into effect immediately after the U.S. elections with bipartisan support from Democrats and Republicans. Together, we will focus on the main goal I have been speaking about for 20 years: stopping Iran’s nuclear armament and weakening the terrorist arms of Tehran and its proxies in the Middle East.’’

Does Bibi have that speech in him? Will he declare victory now or will he continue to pursue his elusive “total” victory?

I have a feeling I know exactly which victory the families of the remaining hostages are praying for.