It’s natural that any virus connected to COVID would scare the daylights out of us. Since the pandemic ambushed us nearly two years ago, escalating fear has been our default position. The first wave was terrible and killed millions around the world. Then the Delta variant hit, which was even more contagious and scary, despite the mitigating effect of vaccines.
If one follows that pattern, we would assume that the latest variant, Omicron, would be even more dangerous, right? But that’s where it gets interesting.
“Dangerous” has two components—how fast the virus spreads and how lethal it is. Much of the panic around Omicron is a reaction to the first component—it’s spreading a lot faster than we’re used to. We’re hearing more often about people who are infected, some of whom we know, some of whom have been vaccinated. That’s scary.
Much of the panic around Omicron is a reaction to the first component—it’s spreading a lot faster than we’re used to.
But much of the evidence so far suggests that this variant is far less deadly than previous strains. As if to confuse us during this moment of weakness and exhaustion, COVID seems to have gone in two directions at once—more contagious, less deadly. And since the “contagious” direction is so visible, many of us are panicking.
The more complete way of looking at Omicron leads to the opposite of panic. The variant’s relatively mild nature means that Omicron could take us more quickly into the promised land of herd immunity. In other words, if we had to pick a variant to go around, it’d be Omicron. The faster it spreads, the quicker it will replace the more dangerous Delta.
Confused, yet?
It’s useful to consider the logic of survival. Pretty much everything in nature tries to survive and replicate. From this vantage point, the Omicron variant may be COVID’s way of trying to survive. It’s figured out that the milder it is, the more easily it can enter our bodies, the more bodies it will enter. Its goal is not necessarily to kill us but to enter us. As NPR reported on Dec. 22, a new analysis by the University of Washington shows that while the Omicron surge will likely peak in a massive wave of infections by the end of January, it is likely to produce far fewer severe illnesses for most people.
The Omicron variant may be COVID’s way of trying to survive. It’s figured out that the milder it is, the more easily it can enter our bodies, the more bodies it will enter.
In this scenario, the vaccines become like seat belts and air bags. Even when they don’t prevent infection, at least they can lessen the severity of a variant that is already less severe. And who doesn’t value the extra protection of seat belts and air bags? It’s all about putting the odds on our side.
This, then, is the case for hope: With the much higher odds of surviving Omicron, the more people catch it, the more we will strengthen our natural immunity and the more likely we’ll tame the tiny beast. Yes, what irony—by being so obsessed with its replication, Omicron may have given us the tools for its demise.
Of course, in this winter of discontent and rampant contagion, it’s hard to see silver linings. If we see mostly the alarming spread of a virus we’ve always assumed is deadly, we’ll see a curse.
But if we see both the rampant contagion and the much lower death rates, maybe we’ll also see that long-awaited light at the end of the tunnel.
