Bibi May Go, But His Policies Will Endure

By this point in his career, Benjamin Netanyahu makes the cat with nine lives look like a slacker by comparison. But if the news out of Israel over the weekend holds up, it’s entirely possible that the curtain may be closing on Bibi’s long-running political magic act.

The emerging partnership between Yesh Atid’s Yair Lapid and Naftali Bennett of Yamina, along with an unprecedented and potentially unwieldy coalition of several smaller parties, appeared to have been derailed during Israel’s recent conflict with Hamas. But now that a cease fire is in place, the potential unity government appears poised to move forward. If Lapid and Bennett and their prospective partners are able to close the deal over the next several days, Netanyahu’s reign over Israeli policy and politics could be over.

If Lapid and Bennett and their prospective partners are able to close the deal over the next several days, Netanyahu’s reign over Israeli policy and politics could be over.

But will it really? There are pronounced differences on Israeli domestic policy between Netanyahu and his successors, and Netanyahu’s own legal fate becomes much more precarious once he no longer holds office. But as it relates to the regional and transnational issues that will shape Israel’s future, neither Bennett nor Lapid are likely to deviate greatly from the current trajectory.

Under the likely power-sharing, Bennett would assume the role of Prime Minister for the next two years. His declared goals on Iran, Gaza and the West Bank are virtually indistinguishable from those that Netanyahu has set. Other right-leaning coalition members such as Gideon Sa’ar of New Hope, Benny Gantz of Blue and White, and Avigdor Lieberman of Yisrael Beiteinu will march in lockstep on these issues as well. All occupy various patches of conservative turf on the ideological landscape and all split from Netanyahu over personal, religious or domestic policy matters more so than over differences on international or security matters.

Even Lapid, who uses somewhat different language than Netanyahu when he talks about Iran and the Palestinians, would not pursue a course on those fronts that departs substantially from that of current leadership. (If anything, that Yesh Atid is described as “center-left” is a mark of how far right-wing Israeli politics have shifted in the post-Labor era.) The most important differences between Lapid and Netanyahu are also on domestic and religious matters, most notably the role of ultra-Orthodox Jews in Israeli society. But even on issues relating to the relationship between Israel and Diaspora Jews, the biggest differences between Lapid and Netanyahu are more tonal than substantive.

The other most significant difference will be an increase in the level of internal discord. The left-leaning Labor and Meretz parties have little in common with the rest of the coalition beyond an antipathy toward Netanyahu. And the critical role of the Arab-Islamist Ra’am Party in creating and maintaining the coalition will make it exceedingly difficult to hold the alliance together on most international issues. Lapid and Bennett suggest that this unity government will focus primarily on domestic matters. But the events of the last few weeks are a strong reminder that politicians don’t always get to make those decisions for themselves.

There’s also little evidence that Israelis are looking for a different approach to dealing with the Palestinians: public opinion polls taken after the ceasefire between Israel and Hamas was implemented show that voters would have preferred that Israel’s military had inflicted greater damage on Hamas before ceasing its operations.

Nor will Netanyahu go gently into that good night. He is already pulling out all stops to peel conservative support away from Bennett and other coalition leaders. He should be expected to emerge as a harsh critic of the new government, creating constant cross-pressure on the conservative members of the coalition and stoking unrest among their followers for any compromises or concessions that will be necessary to maintain the coalition. (And if Netanyahu’s former employee Gideon Sa’ar is named as Justice Minister, as expected, the spectacle of Sa’ar overseeing criminal proceedings against Netanyahu will be raw material for a Netflix soap opera.)

Nor will Netanyahu go gently into that good night. He is already pulling out all stops to peel conservative support away from Bennett and other coalition leaders.

At the time this was written, the likelihood of Bennett’s and Lapid’s success seems to be growing. But even if they do manage to forge a new government, many of Israel’s most important policy debates will continue to reflect a decidedly Bibi-esque footprint. Netanyahu himself may finally be headed toward the exit, but at least on the world stage, Bibi-ism seems likely to drive Israeli politics for some time to come.

Dan Schnur teaches political communications at UC Berkeley, USC and Pepperdine. He hosts the weekly webinar “Politics in the Time of Coronavirus” for the Los Angeles World Affairs Council & Town Hall.