Is Bibi Truly Done?

If you wonder whether this is truly the end of an era, whether Prime Minister Netanyahu is truly on his way out, whether a new Israeli government–of right, center and left–is truly materializing, you are up for disappointment. The disappointment of anyone who must wait a tad more for the final word. Yes, all of the above is an option, maybe even a likelihood, but not yet a certainty. There is still time. There are still ways for the likelihood to return to being an impossibility. There are still 50 hours until Yesh Atid’s Yair Lapid mandate expires. And it’s a week or so before the earliest time in which a new government can be sworn in. A whole long week. That’s eternity.

Just remember: two weeks ago the “change government”–that is, a government other than one headed by Netanyahu–was taken off the table by the same person who is currently slated to be the head of it. Naftali Bennett, of the Yamina party, declared the option dead when rockets were flying from Gaza and an Arab-Israeli mob burned cars and stores and synagogues. He said it is dead, and we all believed it is dead because the people speaking on his behalf sounded so confident, so sure.

Then he flipped. Or flipped back, or whatever you want to call it. Bennett is a curious player in our political drama, and it isn’t easy to determine whether he is the smartest, most cunning politician on the block (proof: he could be the next PM with just six seats in the Knesset), or an unreliable and erratic leader, with good cards and more than a grain of good luck (everyone is willing to put up with him, to get rid of Netanyahu).

To make a long story short, here is where we are: Bennett is a leader of a right-wing party. He committed himself to join a right-wing government if such a possibility exists. On Sunday evening, he declared that the possibility does not exist, and that he had thus decided to form a unity government with his buddy Lapid and other parties, from right (Yamina and New Hope), to center (Blue and White, Yesh Atid), to left (Labor and Meretz). Support of at least one Arab party, probably Raam would also be necessary to get to 61.

Why did Bennett make the move? There are two options based on two competing narratives. One–because he realized that it is either this or a fifth election. So he decided that this would be the right time to join his ideological rivals to avoid more chaos. Two–because he wants to be the Prime Minister, and thus sabotaged all attempts to form a right-wing government under Netanyahu. In short, some see him as a mature adult who prioritized country before political camp, and others see him as an opportunist who prioritized self before ideology.

Does it matter? Maybe not. What does matter is whether Israel is going to have a government and whether such government can function with a measure of efficiency. The answer to both questions is vague. The week before a government is formed is going to be tense. The right-wing parties will apply as much pressure as they can on MKs from Yamina and New Hope, calling them names and protesting wherever they live because all that’s needed to terminate the planned coalition is one deserter. Just one. A sixty-member coalition can’t form a government.

As for this government’s future, it is much too early to forecast. Clearly, it will be a government whose main common denominator is the fear of the big bear Netanyahu. If Netanyahu is the rival, the coalition has a reason to stick together, lest HE return. And yet, on many other things this coalition is going to be the most complicated to handle since forever. From gay rights to Gaza, from the Supreme Court to state and religion, from the nuclear agreement with Iran to the civics curriculum at middle schools–this coalition agrees on nothing.

As for this government’s future, it is much too early to forecast. Clearly, it will be a government whose main common denominator is the fear of the big bear Netanyahu.

Under such circumstances, one might question why such a government should be formed at all. The answer is to restore stability and have a functioning government for some time; to deal with the most uncontroversial topics, such as road congestion, the price of housing, economics and healthcare (yes, in Israel healthcare is uncontroversial), policing and environmental issues; to look for a common good on which both Labor and New Hope can agree; and to implement policies with which both Meretz and Yamina can live.

Oh, and send Netanyahu packing. That’s the main goal. Some would say this is silly. One does not form an incoherent coalition to get rid of one man who is quite successful at his craft. Others would say that this is the most important thing for Israel right now, because Netanyahu is the obstacle that is clogging Israel’s political system. Let him go first, worry about managing an incoherent government later. Is this really happening? Let’s practice patience–it’s an important quality.

Shmuel Rosner is an Israeli columnist, editor, and researcher. He is the editor of the research and data-journalism website themadad.com and is the political editor of the Jewish Journal.