Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has threatened to intensify its crackdown on PKK Kurdish troops in Turkey “until not one terrorist is left,” after a series of attacks that targeted security forces and a US consulate left at least six people dead. The violence in Turkey comes after Erdogan agreed that US forces can use Turkish bases to launch attacks on Islamic State, and pledged to carry out his own attacks.
While Turkish officials insist they have launched a two-pronged attack to hit both the PKK and Islamic State, analysts say that Erdogan is obsessed with the PKK, and will continue to focus most of his energy on the separatist movement, which has allies in Iraq and Syria. But they say he is unlikely to succeed.
“Military means are not sufficient to finish off the PKK,” Pinar Elman, a Turkey analyst, Polish Institute of International Affairs (PISM) told The Media Line. “They have a sociological base in Turkey and without a political process that will tackle the Kurdish problem, Erdogan may attack or damage the PKK but will never destroy it.
There are between 15 and 20 million Kurds among Turkey’s population of 80 million, and many of them have long advocated for an independent separate state. There has long been tension between the Turkish government and the PKK, but a cease-fire had been in place until last month, when a suicide bomber blew himself up a gathering of left-wing activists, killing 32 people in Suruc, a Kurdish town near the Syrian border.
Turkish officials said the attack was ordered by Islamic State, and spurred Turkish interest in stepping up attacks on Islamic State as well.
There are significant Kurdish minorities in Iraq and Syria and well, with some Kurds saying there should be a Kurdish state carved out of territory from all three countries. This is seen as one of the reasons that Erdogan has expanded his attacks against the Islamic State.
But while many in Turkey support the attacks on the PKK, they are not expected to be as enthusiastic about Turkish involvement in the fight against Islamic State.
“I don’t think attacking Islamic State is the same kettle of fish as attacking the PKK,” Yezid Sayigh, of the Carnegie Middle East Center in Beirut told The Media Line. “Islamic State does not have a military presence in Turkey, although it does have sympathizers. If Turkey does take on a more significant military role against Islamic State in Turkey or Iraq, they will not do anything beyond what the Americans are doing.”
He said that Erdogan’s decision to allow the US to use Turkish air bases will make it easier for the US to attack Islamic State but it unlikely to be a “game-changer.” IS continues to hold large swathes of Iraq and Syria. Erdogan has recently arrested 1300 suspected supporters of Islamic state and the PKK.
Turkey continues to advocate for a no-fly zone in Turkey along its border with Syria, where more than one million Syrian refugees are currently living. The civil war in Syria has also strengthened the PKK’s armed offshoot in Syria called the YPG.
Turkey has also been pushing for the overthrow of Syrian President Bashar Assad, and has been accused of supporting some of the rebel groups who oppose Assad. At the same time, Erdogan is growing increasingly nervous about the YPG which has effectively carved out a virtually independent state near Turkey’s border. While Turkey does not support the YPG, they have been the most successful in fighting Islamic State, with impressive successes in the battle of Kobane last year.
