Rosner’s Domain: Will Netanyahu Win the Fifth Election?

Israel is in a political crisis – again. The short story is this: one Knesset Member left the 61-member majority coalition, and thus the majority is gone. This doesn’t necessarily mean that Israel is about to have a new election tomorrow or very soon, but it does cast a long shadow over the ability of the current government to survive more than a few more months. The politicians are gearing up in preparation for such a scenario, and so, the question must be asked: What happens if there’s a new election? Following are a few pointers for those who want to follow Israel’s political upheaval closely. An early guide to the perplexed; an early guide for Israel’s fifth election in three years (this sounds awful, doesn’t it?).

Here’s an early guide to the perplexed; an early guide for Israel’s fifth consecutive election (this sounds awful, doesn’t it?).

An election doesn’t necessarily mean a decision. Why? Because the “blocs” are still close to a tie. There may well be a situation where no one will have a viable option to form a coalition. But this is too early to say for several reasons. 1. It is not clear who will run in a new election. The parties we see now are not necessarily the parties that will run when the time comes. 2. It is not clear who will decide to boycott whom in the next term. For example: Will Defense Minister Gantz from Blue and White vow not to sit with Netanyahu? To keep his voters, he might need to say such a thing. To sound honest and realistic, he might decide not to say such a thing (because one of the few options for a stable coalition would be Gantz joining the right-wing bloc). 3. And don’t forget: we have learned from Naftali Bennett that promises such as this (I will never sit with X) don’t always have merit. 

The right is not far from a (small) majority. The “core right” consists of four parties: Likud, Religious Zionism, Shas and United Torah Judaism. In six of the last ten polls this bloc gets 60 seats or more. Sixty is not a majority, but it is close. So it certainly seems possible that the right-religious bloc will get there. Especially if the other option would be election number six. And of course, a caveat is needed here: today’s polls are not tomorrow’s polls. Still, when Netanyahu calculates his chances, polls are the tool he has at his disposal. And this tool tells him that betting on a new election would not be an unreasonable gamble.

Religious Zionism is strengthening. Almost everyone who voted for the party intends to vote for it again, and there are also additional voters who consider this party as an option. This could mean a coalition more to the right than previous Netanyahu coalitions. 

Yamina and New Hope are in jeopardy. These two parties might not be able to survive solo. Justice Minister Saar and his friends in New Hope will be looking to hook up with someone, maybe Gantz. Bennett and his Yamina gang will probably disperse. And what about Bennett himself? This is an interesting question. More than a few politicians believe that being the Prime Minister for a year or so is going to be his last political hurrah (at least until he makes a future “comeback”). 

Arab voters, still a mystery. In all polls, the Joint List and Raam simply get the same number of seats they have today, plus or minus a seat. More than anything, this indicates the difficulty of pollsters in deciphering what Arab voters intend to do. The battle between the two Arab parties — the one that joined the coalition and wants to play the Israeli political game as a full participant, and the one that insists on remaining on the sideline as a permanent naysayer — will be one of the most interesting battles of the next elections.

Raam presented Arab voters with an alternative, not only in words but also in deeds. It is a member of the coalition, influences it, changes the Jewish-Arab conversation. Israeli Arab voters will have to decide whether this precedent is worthy of an attempted repeat. Of course, there is no guarantee that a repeat is an option. Maybe the right-wing bloc will win, and Raam will not be asked to take part in a coalition. And yet, the alternative was presented sharply, and from now on it will be fascinating to watch the internal political game among Arab voters, a game that will take place in places where polls are harder to decipher.

Something I wrote in Hebrew

Why did MK Idit Silman ditch the coalition? Her excuse was a debate over the demand of some Israelis to let people have non-Kosher-for-Passover food in hospitals during the holiday. Referring to this debate I wrote the following paragraph:

Yitzhak Rabin did not hesitate to give Shas control over matters of religion and state, in order to gain a stable government. Since then, the basic situation of the center-left has not changed and the deal is always the same deal: government in exchange for Orthodox control of religion and state matters. You want to oust Netanyahu? You will have to accept a ban on chametz in hospitals. You want chametz in hospitals during Pesach? You will have to find a majority that does not include Members of Knesset from the religious bloc. This is not a debate about who is right, or who has more support, or what the public wants. It’s a simple power game. MK Silman is not as radical as the ultra-Orthodox MK’s, but still wants the same basic deal. When she didn’t seem to get it, she decided to jump ship. 

A week’s numbers

Here we go again: Themadad.com has no choice but to reinstate its weighted polls average. Remember: 60 seats + one is what a coalition must have. 

A reader’s response:

Ari Goldblum asks: “Do you still think that the IDF can operate in the West Bank the way it did twenty years ago?” Answer: Read the news coming out of Jenin in the last couple of days (in short: yes).

Shmuel Rosner is senior political editor. For more analysis of Israeli and international politics, visit Rosner’s Domain at jewishjournal.com/rosnersdomain.