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“When the Budget Passes, Bibi Goes.” Really?

Is Netanyahu finally on the way down? We will leave the prediction, or prophecy, to others, and concentrate on a few numbers—the numbers that work against Netanyahu, and those he can look at with hope: 3, 59, 35, 8. 
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November 10, 2021
Amir Levy/Getty Images

It is difficult to know what is going through the mind of a former prime minister who is expected to spend many more days as opposition leader, and perhaps as many as a defendant in a trial. Maybe Benjamin Netanyahu is looking for a way out. Maybe he’s considering retirement. Maybe. His speech in the Knesset last week, when the government passed the budget and ensured its survivability for at least another year, certainly did not look like that. But there can always be surprises. Either way, it seems that leaders in the coalition are building on a scenario that will rid Israel of Netanyahu’s long shadow. Either he will resign voluntarily, or a great revolt within the Likud party will finally materialize. 

Is Netanyahu finally on the way down? We will leave the prediction, or prophecy, to others, and concentrate on a few numbers—the numbers that work against Netanyahu, and those he can look at with hope: 3, 59, 35, 8. 

The Number 3

The budget is a done deal. The coalition remains intact. But for how long? That’s the important question. If we are talking about another half year, or a year, the members of Likud can stand it. If, on the other hand, the coalition is about to last much longer—say, three years—well, that is a long time. A long time in the opposition for a party that isn’t used to being in the opposition. A long time to ponder the question of what would have happened had Netanyahu not been the head of Likud but rather someone else. 

Some Likud members believe that the budget is not securing the government, but rather the beginning of its end. Until now it had a clear, shared target: the budget. Now, the infighting begins. Members of Likud hope that the government will disintegrate before Yair Lapid is slated to replace Naftali Bennett as Prime Minister. Netanyahu must make sure that such hope is preserved, to keep his party unified. 

The Number 59

This is the maximum number of seats the Likud and its partners have received in the last two months of polls. In most polls the right-religious bloc of parties gets less than this number. Namely, less that close to the necessary number of 61. 

What parties are in the bloc? The parties that are willing to sit with Netanyahu in a coalition: Likud, Religious Zionism, and the two ultra-Orthodox parties, Shas and United Torah Judaism. If this bloc is Netanyahu’s only option, he currently has no viable option to form a government. Not even according to the most flattering public opinion polls. Last week, in the Knesset, Netanyahu spoke about the “dissatisfied masses.” Indeed, there are such masses. But there are even more masses who do not want their representatives to sit under Netanyahu. Netanyahu, in his well-crafted speech, mocked Bennett’s disappearing projected seats. Certainly Bennett does seem to gain support for his party. He was made the PM with six seats in parliament, and still gets a similar, or lower, number of seats in the polls. But Netanyahu also has a ceiling that he does not break—the ceiling erected by the other bloc, the non-Bibi bloc. 

What is Netanyahu’s problem? The more than one coalition that the Likud could form without Netanyahu. A coalition with Yamina (Bennett), and a coalition with Yamina and Blue and White (Gantz). There are several more options, if and when Netanyahu vacates his seat as head of Likud. 

The Number 35

Look at the Likud’s seat graph (below). These are the number of seats the Likud party gets in the polls conducted since the last election. The graph speaks for itself. Netanyahu may not have a coalition, but he is gaining more and more voters. And if he has voters, those who hope for his quick removal have a problem. It is far from clear that they could garner support for such a move within the party. It is far from clear that they could have the support for such a move of party voters. As long as Netanyahu and the Likud are gaining seats, the dream of the sixty-one-seat coalition option is also alive and possibly within reach. Maybe there is no feasibility of a coalition yet, but if the graph continues to climb the way it did in the last few months, at the end there could be such feasibility. In short, the fact that the Likud is not losing but rather gaining seats will make it very difficult for Netanyahu’s opponents who want to challenge him.

The Number 8

This is our last number, and it is another one that speaks volumes about internal dynamics among Likud voters. The data-journalism website themadad.com has a constantly updated feature that measures the level of trust in the PM, government ministers, and also the head of opposition, Netanyahu. A few days ago, I asked my colleague, Noah Slepkov, to isolate the ranking of Likud voters. The rating is from 0 to 10, and Netanyahu’s overall score is quite low: 4.29. 

Why so low? Because all the voters who oppose him have very low trust in him. Labor voters rate their trust in him 1.7. New Hope voters put him at 2.6. But what about Likud voters? Have they lost faith in him? The leaders of Likud may grumble about him, and wait impatiently for him to move on, but not Likud voters. Their trust in him is at 8.5. This is much more than what they give any other leader. This is more than most voters of most other parties give their own leaders. Simply: it is difficult to identify any erosion in Netanyahu’s standings among his voters, and as long as these are the numbers, it is difficult to see Netanyahu go involuntarily. Bennett can still hope (he projected such an outcome in his own Knesset speech) that after the budget (of him) comes the fall (of Bibi). But for now this seems more like a wish than anything resembling a certainty.

Something I wrote in Hebrew

The Attorney General Mandelblit forced the Finance Minister Lieberman to accept that Charedi Rabbinic students will keep getting subsidies for the children’s schooling—because they study a “profession.” Here’s what I wrote:

Lieberman is materially right. Mandelblit is legally right. The representatives of the ultra-Orthodox parties, and their supporters in the opposition as well as some in the coalition, are well aware of this gap, and know how to use it to their advantage. What they do is completely legitimate. They believe that it is more important to preserve the world of Torah, to enlarge it, than to send students to do real work (that is, work that isn’t about being a rabbi). This is a debate on national priorities. It is an important and legitimate debate. The ultra-Orthodox lose this debate in public opinion but often win it in actual policies. 

A week’s numbers

A reader’s response

Dan Morenoff responded to the U.S. Jerusalem consulate article from last week:

“This one [is an issue] where the [Israeli] government has the only say: they don’t have to convince anyone else. It’s their prerogative (and supported by a broad, national consensus).”


Shmuel Rosner is senior political editor. For more analysis of Israeli and international politics, visit Rosner’s Domain at jewishjournal.com/rosnersdomain.

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