In the modern era, an embassy or consulate is much more a symbol than an essential office. When the U.S. moved its Israel embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem, the goal was not an improvement in servicing Israelis; the goal was to make a statement: Jerusalem is Israel’s capital. When the U.S. decided to close the separate consulate in Jerusalem—a consulate that served as a kind of “embassy” to the Palestinians—the ire of Palestinians wasn’t about getting lesser services (they get them at the embassy), but rather about the symbolic nature of the move.
So, when the Biden administration says it wants to reopen the Jerusalem consulate, it’s not because a consulate is needed for any practical reason. A reopening is a statement. In fact, it is two statements. Statement one: “We reverse the policies of Donald Trump.” Statement two: “We see Jerusalem as the capital of a future Palestine (in addition to Israel)”.
Israel opposes this move, also for two reasons. One, because it will highly complicate its ability to keep a stable coalition. Right wing members of the coalition have already stated that such a move is going to be a casus belli. Two, because most Israeli leaders see Jerusalem as the capital of Israel, period.
Having laid down the background, three questions emerge:
Does the U.S. need Israel to agree to such a move? (The answer is yes, as U.S. Deputy Secretary of State for Management and Resources Brian McKeon explained in the Senate a week ago.)
Is Israel going to agree to such a move? (The answer is no, unless it has no choice –namely, only under great pressure, protest and possible crisis.)
Is the U.S. going to apply great pressure on Israel to achieve this goal? (The answer is maybe, mixing sticks and carrots, details to follow).
So why would his administration chase this dream of insignificance? The answer is politics. There is no explanation other than politics.
President Biden does not need a consulate in Jerusalem and does not need the headache involved in fighting such negligible battle. He knows, as everyone else does, that the Israeli-Palestinian arena is not ripe for breakthroughs; he knows, as most others also do, that the world, and the U.S. (and Israel) have problems more urgent than the plight of the Palestinians; he knows that making a move such as this could have disruptive unintended consequences. So why would his administration chase this dream of insignificance? The answer is politics. There is no explanation other than politics. Biden must keep the progressives of his party close and must throw them a bone to chew on. Jerusalem is that bone.
Life could have been easier, had Israel not had its own political considerations and complications. Israel lived with a Jerusalem consulate for many years; it could live with a consulate for many more years—especially so if a significant reward is attached to this move. But the Biden administration doesn’t seem ready to reward Israel in a way that could uncomplicate the subject (imagine “Give us a consulate and we will apply much more pressure on Iran.”). And so, to achieve a small political triumph at home, Biden must deal with the possibility of having a political defeat abroad. He might win AOC in New York by losing Naftali Bennett in Jerusalem. He might please Bernie Sanders in Vermont by handing Benjamin Netanyahu the wild card he needs to get back to the PM’s office. To ease his path, he could offer Israel a few carrots. It is not a coincidence that the two countries emphasize the feasibility of Israelis getting an exemption from the need for a U.S. Visa. But ultimately, this is a high-risk little-reward situation for both governments.
You might ask: Well, what about the essence? What about long-term considerations of policy toward Israel and the Palestinians? To which the answer is: there is very little essence, there is only a pretense of essence. A consulate in Jerusalem isn’t going to expedite a peace process, isn’t going to determine the future of Jerusalem, isn’t going to contribute anything that counts in the real world of policy and action. Maybe it would signal to the Palestinians that they aren’t yet abandoned by the U.S. Maybe it would signal to Israel that it must calculate future plans for Jerusalem more cautiously. Is it worth the headache, the possible ramifications, the fight?
Here the answer is: We don’t know. Such things often have a life of their own. Such things often begin as a small disagreement and turn into a battle that no one really wanted.
Something I wrote in Hebrew
Here’s something I wrote about the unpopular Finance Minister, Avigdor Lieberman:
What kind of politician is not bothered by his public status? Lieberman has two main reasons not to be bothered, which differentiate him from a great many other politicians. First, he has a stable voter base. Not huge. But stable. Naftali Bennett can be asked if he will pass the electoral threshold in the next election. But not Lieberman. The chairman of Yisrael Beiteinu has a degree of confidence that he will also be a member of the next Knesset. Second, if you have not noticed, from the last election onward it is possible to be prime minister of Israel even with a small number of seats in the Knesset. That is, if until a few years ago the dream of becoming prime minister was limited to someone who could collect twenty seats in the Knesset or more, which Lieberman probably cannot do at the moment, now it is permissible to dream of becoming prime minister even when the number of seats is more modest.
A week’s numbers
Israel’s Bureau of Statistics proving once more that in Israel, like every western country, television is losing ground to the web as a main source of information:
A reader’s response
Following my last week’s article, Avi Mitrani tweeted: “I’m with you… but you don’t give in the article any example from experience to base the credence on.” So, why would I put more credence on Israel telling the truth than Palestinians human rights organizations? Rather than giving one example out of many, I’ll recommend the publications of NGO Monitor. Go to their website to find dozens of reasons.
Shmuel Rosner is senior political editor. For more analysis of Israeli and international politics, visit Rosner’s Domain at jewishjournal.com/rosnersdomain.
