There Is No One Reason for the Violent Mess in Jerusalem

Give Hamas leaders some credit: They warned Israel that at exactly 6pm on May 10, if things aren’t changed in Jerusalem, they would launch rockets. Then they did. At exactly 6pm, Hamas launched rockets at Jerusalem, Ashkelon and other cities and towns.

Surely, the warning was just an exercise to make it all seem more dramatic. Hamas was under no illusion that Israel would surrender its control over Jerusalem — neither by six nor later. The threat was an excuse, as if Israel is at fault. Israel did not heed the warning, hence the launching. The Middle East often feels like a kindergarten of adults with real weapons.

So, why is Hamas launching now? That’s complicated. It always is complicated, but here are some of the drivers behind the current tension:

• A decision by the Palestinian Authority not to hold an election, as Hamas was likely to win.
• Springtime and the ease of the pandemic.
• The battle over ownership of houses in an East Jerusalem neighborhood. To understand this event, we’d need another article. Let’s just say: It’s not just about bad Jews and good Arabs — nor the other way around.
• The month of Ramadan, and the religious fervor surrounding it.
• Jerusalem Day, which falls on the month of Ramadan and provides additional complications.
• An Israeli government that barely functions and coalition negotiations that seem likely to bring about a new government. It’s possible that Hamas does not want to see an Israeli coalition supported by Arab Israelis.

There are probably more reasons if we dig deeper. There are always more. The bottom line is still the same: Hamas made itself a hero for the day. It made Israel seem a little confused. It will probably get some political traction out of its aggressive posture. The United States already expressed its great worry about tensions in the region, the UN is likely to condemn Israel, as it usually does, and a few Arab countries were quick to join the chorus of those more concerned about Israel’s attempts to take over Temple Mount than keeping Jerusalem safe.

The bottom line is still the same: Hamas made itself a hero for the day. It made Israel seem a little confused. It will probably get some political traction out of its aggressive posture.

The current barrage of rockets could lead to a prolonged conflict. When Ehud Olmert was about to end his term as prime minister, he launched operation Cast Lead in Gaza. Netanyahu is about to end his own term, and he can also decide that he has less to lose, politically speaking, if he launches his own version of a Gaza operation.

More likely, though, is a familiar scenario: a few days of skirmishes and then a cease fire. Gazans will end up in as bad a position as they entered. It will not make them more prosperous or happier. Any triumph they celebrate today is sad even for those on the supposed losing end — Israelis. Yes, it is maddening too. But when there are only losers, it’s more sad than anything.

Shmuel Rosner is an Israeli columnist, editor, and researcher. He is the editor of the research and data-journalism website themadad.com and is the political editor of the Jewish Journal.