Vice President Joe Biden is coming for a visit in Israel (and the Palestinian territories – you can no longer come to Israel without paying a visit to the neighbor). He is coming at a time when most Israelis have a fairly low view of the administration of which he is a member. He is also coming at a time when Israelis are watching with growing puzzlement the US elections and are wondering what implications these election could have on their ability to thrive in the Middle East.
Who would Israelis support in the US elections? Back in January, I had an answer for you: probably Marco Rubio. But that answer might no longer be relevant, so Israelis, like all other foreign observers, might have to readjust their expectations and make do with the choice of the American people.
Last week, pollster Menachem Lazar asked Israelis to choose between the two leading candidates of the two parties – Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump. He is, as far as I know, the first Israeli pollster to put this question forward in such a simple manner, and hence the first to give us a sense of where Israelis stand as the battles still rages and the future is still murky.
Three questions were asked – the first of which is an assessment: If Clinton and Trump are the nominees, which of the two will be President? Israelis say (not that their view matters much) Clinton (46%) is more likely to win than Trump (38%). Only 15% gave the answer I believe to be the better answer under the current circumstances: I don't know.
The second question is tricky: If you were an American, which of the two would you choose? An assumption is made here – not necessarily valid – that Israelis can put themselves in American shoes and imagine the political tendencies of their American parallel self. 46% said they'd vote for Clinton, while 37% said they'd vote for Trump. That is suspiciously close to the number of people predicting a Clinton and a Trump electoral victory.
The third question is the interesting one: Would these two be good or bad for Israel? But before we show Israel's answer to that question, it is worth reminding the readers of two things: A. in the last three rounds of elections, Israelis picked the Republican candidate (Bush, McCain, Romney) over the Democratic one (Kerry, Obama). B. Clinton is a name that is held in high regard by Israelis – a Clinton was the “best President for Israel in the last thirty years” according to a plurality of Israelis.
Would Hillary Clinton be as good as her husband? Would Israel prefer the Republican nominee even in case it is Trump? Here are the numbers, followed by a few comments:
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Clinton
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Trump
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Good for Israel
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51%
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60%
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bad for Israel
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32%
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17%
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Don't Know
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17%
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23%
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Some things to note:
1. More Israelis would vote for Clinton “as Americans” compared to Trump, but less of them think of her as “good for Israel.” A third of Israelis think that Clinton would be “bad for Israel.”
2. Pollster Lazar kindly let me take a look at the breakdown of answers by political tendencies, and there are no surprises: Right wing Israelis are those driving Clinton's numbers down (40% say “bad”). Right wing Israelis are also the ones who say they'd vote for Trump in significant numbers (48%).
3. The numbers of “centrist” Israelis are the most telling. 63% and 64% of them think that Clinton and Trump would be “good” for Israel – essentially the same number of people. But when it comes to “bad” for Israel the numbers are much different: only 18% believe that Trump would be bad for Israel – 30% believe that Clinton would be bad for Israel.
That is to say: Israel tilts rightward when it considers American politics. It tilts rightward in a way that makes it less aware of Trump's troubling characteristics and proposed policies. Surely, many Israelis realize that their understanding of the Trump phenomenon is limited, and that there's still much to learn about him – that's why his “I don't know” numbers are higher (see table). But, all in all, Israelis hear “Clinton” and associate it with Obama, peace process, pressure on Israel, leftist politics, trouble. They hear Trump and associate it with the opposite of Obama, the opposite of politically correct peace processing and naïve presumptions about the Middle East.
