I once had a history teacher who was ambivalent about dates.Before a test, an anxious student would invariably ask whether we’d need to remember what year an event happened.
He’d wave off the question, “Just remember the big ones.”
Don’t you get the feeling 2003 will be a Big One?
Every generation believes it is witness to momentous times.That desire accounts for people at the fringes who forecast the imminent end ofthe world — then are forced to readjust their predictions when, say, 2000 cameand went like lunchtime.
But it also accounts for the rest of us who smirk whenreciting the Chinese curse, “May you live in interesting times,” certain that,as opposed to the Chinese guy who came up with the phrase, ours really areinteresting times.
Even those of us who don’t stand asteroid watch sense thatthe world has been spinning faster since Sept. 11, 2001. “I rise to issue a warning and sound the alarm to you, my dear congregation,” Rabbi JacobPressman of Temple Beth Am said in his Rosh Hashana sermon this year. Afterspeaking of the ominous clouds gathering over the heads of American Jewry, herevealed that his words, which rang true on Rosh Hashana 2002, were firstspoken by his rabbi on the first day of Rosh Hashana — 1938.
Indeed, 2003 looks like it could be, if not, heaven forbid,1939, then a date up there with the big ones. Consider:
The Second Gulf War — It’s not if, it’s when.
President Bush and his advisers see the fall of SaddamHussein as the key to democratization throughout the Mideast — the dominoeffect, with us pushing the first tile. Others say the president’s motivationis cheap oil. And Bush himself says it’s because Saddam is a weapon of massdestruction waiting to happen. All three motivations are no doubt at work,though in what proportion who can say.
War will bring havoc, but how much and to whom no one canpredict. Remember Gulf War syndrome? The burning oil fields? The Scuds? Theineffectual Patriot missile batteries? The chaotic and ill-informed end, whenwe deserted Saddam’s opposition to face his wrath? We will likely not facethose catastrophes again, but there will be new and unpredicted ones.
Israel — This week the Quartet pushed forward a Mideastpeace plan that outlines in relative detail the steps Israel and the Palestiniansmust take to disengage their forces. The plan will not go into effect untilafter Israel’s elections on Jan. 28, and even then it is predicated on thePalestinians adhering to a cease-fire and Israel suspending the growth of itssettlements. The former is something the various Palestinian factions have beenunwilling to do; the latter something the Israelis went on doing through everygovernment, including Ehud Barak’s.
During the Second Gulf War, Israel will face a far greaterthreat than will the United States. After the Second Gulf War, America, havingput its soldiers on the line in eradicating one of Israel’s greatest enemies,might come calling to cash in big chits. Until then, there is little sign thatthe terror and retaliation will cease.
The Economy — The lean times are upon us with a vengeance.The California budget deficit of $34.8 billion (and ticking) will necessitateacross-the-board cuts in social services. Combine these with a failinghealth-care system, increased public expenditures on security needs and lowercharitable giving due to a slack economy, and the scope of the crisis seemshistoric.
The Other Shoe — This is the unpredictable lurking behindthe unknowables. To hear many of our own elected officials tell it, anothermajor terror attack is inevitable. I’m still not certain what they expect us todo with that information, other than remember not to vote them out of officeafterward for not warning us — should they or we be around for the afterward.
Graded on a curve, of course, we have much less reason forfear and foreboding than most people in the world, or, for that matter, thanmany people in our city. We are not an Iraqi mother waiting for the bombs tofall, an African teenager dying of AIDS, an Israeli father maimed by a suicideattack or an Angeleno sleeping on the streets these winter nights.
Many of us would do well to focus more on these people’sworries than our own, not just to improve our perspective but to improve ourworld. If we can’t worry any less, let’s give more — there’s one response to aworld that feels slated to go awry. Few of us can jump on the levers of power.Most of us have to choose in much, much smaller ways whether or not to be oneof the bright spots in a dark year. History may prove that 2003 was America’sdarkest hour, or its brightest.
As essayist Louis Menand reminds us, never “worry about whatfuture historians will think of us: they’ll despise us no matter what. It’swhat we think of us that we need to be concerned with.”
Happy New Year. Â
