The Timid Retreats of the Dictator of Iran?

While Iran’s new president, Massoud Pezeshkian, sparked controversy in New York with his comments about “reducing tensions” with Israel and by participating in a conference organized by the Iranian delegation, which also included an Israeli citizen, Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, swiftly appointed Mohammad Mokhber—former Vice President under Ebrahim Raisi (who died in a helicopter crash) and later interim president—as his “advisor and assistant.” This marks the first time Khamenei has granted such a position to anyone.

Some analysts interpret this move as a response to Pezeshkian’s remarks, which they see as being at odds with Iran’s official policy on Israel. Despite the foreign minister, who accompanied Pezeshkian to New York, denying these statements, Khamenei seems determined to show that nothing has changed to avoid unrest among his supporters in Iran and the region. Given that Pezeshkian was once said to be aligned with the so-called reformist camp, it’s likely Khamenei wanted to limit his influence.

In the decree appointing Mohammad Mokhber, Khamenei stated: “In light of your committed and impactful services in managerial and economic areas, especially in the martyr Raisi’s government, and your wise and prudent policy of utilizing talented, motivated, and hardworking youth, I hereby appoint you as my advisor and assistant. It is expected that, in line with this policy, you will continue to identify young talents and collaborate with them through logical planning, assisting governmental and non-governmental organizations in utilizing these resources.”

At first glance, it seems that Khamenei, who had been working to consolidate power before Raisi’s death, is now trying to build a loyal government within his office, appointing individuals who will support him unwaveringly. His goal is to withstand the immense internal and international crises currently pressing on the regime. However, another possibility exists.

Hitting An Impasse

Looking at the situation in Iran: According to regime-controlled newspapers, over 90% of the population is dissatisfied, with 75-80% living below the poverty line. In the last two presidential and parliamentary elections, more than 90% of the people boycotted the polls despite various pressures. These numbers are loud alarm bells for Khamenei, signaling the potential for another uprising, likely to be more intense than the major uprisings of 2017, 2019 and 2022.

Although Khamenei managed to suppress these earlier uprisings through violent crackdowns, thousands of Resistance Units affiliated with the opposition OMPI /MEK (Mujahedin-e Khalq) have already carried out more than 20,000 acts of propaganda in just one month. These units, scattered throughout Iran, could mobilize the street power necessary to topple the regime in the next uprising, despite the regime’s relentless repression.

These units, scattered throughout Iran, could mobilize the street power necessary to topple the regime in the next uprising, despite the regime’s relentless repression.

To stave off such an uprising, Khamenei has been fueling conflict in the Middle East, hoping that external wars will prevent domestic rebellion. However, this dangerous strategy has begun to backfire.

External Threats

 The assassination of Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, within a highly secure area, followed by the explosion of communications devices and Israel’s targeted attacks on Hezbollah centers, are not merely military strikes; they are intelligence breaches, signaling an internal collapse within the regime. It’s like a tree being hollowed out from within by termites. As a result, the entire Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) is being subjected to a renewed counterintelligence review.

The Heart of Warmongering

Among Iranian dissidents, there is a saying that the heart of the regime’s warmongering lies in Iran, and that the wars it has started will eventually reach this heart. Recent events, especially the bombings targeting Hezbollah, confirm this, and it’s something that deeply worries Khamenei. Could a targeted strike in Tehran ignite the powder keg of dissatisfaction among the Iranian people?

Pezeshkian’s remarks might be an attempt to lower external tensions. For decades, the mullahs have used slogans like “Death to America” and “Death to Israel” as rallying cries to mobilize backward forces in the Middle East, ensuring their survival through warmongering and terrorism—always a cover for domestic repression. This is why Khamenei now pretends to strongly oppose Pezeshkian’s comments.

Meanwhile, for the first time, Mojtaba Khamenei, the son of Ali Khamenei, has been publicly mentioned in regime newspapers with the title of “Ayatollah.” This title, a religious rank higher than that of former presidents Hassan Rouhani or Ali-Akbar Hashemi-Rafsanjani, signifies that Mojtaba is being positioned as his father’s potential successor. In a public video clip addressed to his students, Mojtaba stated that he could no longer continue teaching. He currently oversees the intelligence agencies, plain clothes forces, and Iran’s state radio and television.

It appears that the old dictator, whose cunning and deceit have sustained his regime for four decades, is now grappling with numerous internal and external crises. To navigate these challenges, he is making efforts to reduce tensions with Israel, hoping to fortify himself against the threat of a potential uprising.

Hamid Enayat is a political scientist, specializing on the topic of Iran, who collaborates with the Iranian democratic opposition.