Alarm Bells Ringing for Khamenei

Seyed Abbas Araghchi, the Foreign Minister in the new Iranian president Masoud Pezeshkian’s cabinet and former Deputy Foreign Minister, was personally appointed by the supreme leader Ali Khamenei to negotiate with the United States. On August 24, 2024, in an interview with the Iranian National Radio and Television Agency, he laid out the central aspects of Iran’s foreign policy.

Managing Hostility with the United States

Araghchi emphasized that tensions with the United States, especially after the Gaza war, are unlikely to be resolved. He stated, “Support for the Axis of Resistance, rooted in the beliefs and ideals of the Islamic Republic, is a non-negotiable policy. Some of our hostilities with the U.S. are irreconcilable because they stem from our core beliefs and ideals. We are not aiming to end hostility or tension with the United States, as many of these tensions are based on fundamental differences. Our objective is to manage these hostilities to mitigate the costs imposed on us.”

Rooted in the Middle Ages, incapable of answering the core demands of a hostile Iranian society for democracy and better life, the Mullah’s regime has sustained itself by continuously stirring up crises in the region. Although it may momentarily scale back these tactics, abandoning this strategy for survival is not an option.

Stoking War to Avert Uprisings

To fend off internal crises, especially the wave of uprisings, the Iranian dictatorship has been fueling conflict by providing financial, logistical and military support to Hamas. Araghchi remarked on the Gaza war, asserting that “our foreign policy must be proactive. We must engage not only on the ground—in the mullahs’ parlance, ‘ground’ refers to activities like terrorism, chaos, and warfare aimed at advancing specific policies—but also in diplomacy. We must ensure that ceasefire negotiations do not proceed without considering Iran’s stance.”

The Iranian regime’s attack on Israel, followed by Israel’s retaliatory strike, both aimed at undermining each other’s deterrence capabilities, signals that the flames of this conflict are likely to engulf the Iranian regime itself.

Khamenei’s Alarm Bells Are Ringing

The parliamentary and presidential elections, boycotted by at least ninety percent of the population, have sounded a dire warning for Iran’s dictator, Ali Khamenei, forcing him to reconsider some of his political strategies. Khamenei is now focused on having sanctions lifted, even if only partially, to manage the internal super-crises plaguing the country, such as runaway inflation and the widespread poverty affecting more than two-thirds of the population. His aim is to prevent another uprising like those in 2017, 2019, and 2022. He is acutely aware that the next uprising could be even more devastating and could bring the regime’s downfall within sight.

Khamenei’s fear is rooted in the fact that, despite brutal repression, the Resistance Units affiliated with the MEK (People’s Mojahedin Organization of Iran), the regime’s sworn enemies, have significantly expanded and could mobilize the street power needed to overthrow the regime. It was largely due to these units that the elections were widely boycotted.

Ebrahim Raisi and Masoud Pezeshkian: Two Sides of the Same Coin

The death of Ebrahim Raisi in a helicopter crash has thrown a wrench into Khamenei’s plans to purify and consolidate his government. Facing severe international and domestic isolation, the religious dictator has now allowed the so-called reformist Masoud Pezeshkian to run in the presidential elections. Khamenei’s strategy is twofold: first, to broaden the regime’s base by bringing the previously fractured “reformists” back into the fold, and second, to engage in negotiations with the United States during the presidential election, aiming to have sanctions at least partially lifted. Khamenei hopes that by doing so, he might be able to quell the deep dissatisfaction of the people, especially considering the more than forty percent inflation and widespread poverty affecting over two-thirds of the population, along with other critical issues.

The death of Ebrahim Raisi in a helicopter crash has thrown a wrench into Khamenei’s plans to purify and consolidate his government.

 “The JCPOA, as it stands, is beyond revival.”

In 2021, there was an opportunity for a nuclear agreement during Rouhani’s presidency, but Khamenei thwarted it by pushing legislation through Parliament. The religious dictator is adamant about not losing the leverage provided by the nuclear facilities and enriched uranium; he has always wielded them like a Sword of Damocles over his dealings with Europe and the United States, using them as instruments of blackmail. In the same interview, Araghchi reiterated, “The JCPOA, in its current form, is not revivable.” Nevertheless, the regime might be considering scaling back its 90% uranium enrichment and even allowing inspections by the International Atomic Energy Agency to secure some relief from sanctions, particularly as the U.S. elections approach, without fully relinquishing its nuclear ambitions. The regime could easily resume 90% enrichment at will. Since 1983, Iran has pursued nuclear weapons, possibly spending billions of dollars on the effort. Nuclear weapons are integral to the regime’s survival strategy. Iran seeks to negotiate over the Sword of Damocles it holds above its relations with Europe and the U.S., aiming to extract concessions without ever fully laying down that sword.

Could Khamenei’s hesitation to execute severe retaliation be part of these tactical retreats to gain concessions? The visit of Qatar’s Foreign Minister to Tehran on August 26, 2024, might lend credence to this suspicion. However, even a tactical retreat by Khamenei is likely to exacerbate divisions at the top of the regime and, contrary to his intentions, could pave the way for another uprising, the very outcome the dictator is desperate to prevent.

Hamid Enayat is a political scientist, specializing on the topic of Iran, who collaborates with the Iranian democratic opposition.