The Twenty-First Century: The New Normal

The analysis and data introduced here are designed to provoke a conversation on the “state of our community” as we experience the full impact of the pandemic, understand the evolving and transformative economic forces, and manage the shifting demographic realities. In the first part of this survey, we examined many of the factors that contributed to the rise of the Jewish century, as well as those factors that may undermine the American Jewish experience going forward.

The American Jewish community is undergoing a profound structural reorganization and social reorientation. The full implication of these changes will take years to fully comprehend.

The pace of change regarding social trends and economic indicators, for example, is significantly more dramatic than we might have anticipated between 1945 and 1980, a 35-year spread. One cannot predict, for example, transformative moments—such as the founding of the State of Israel (1948) or the Six Day War (1967). But the impact of these powerful events transformed the Jewish story. With this in mind, one must ask the “what if” question when it comes to the uncertainty of the global scene and the potential implications for the Jewish future.

Projections about the Jewish future are not unusual. For example, in the 1950s prominent Jewish historians were asked about the impact of suburbanization and the availability of television on Jewish life. These scholars offered a doomsday analysis. While their predictions did not materialize, the idea of imagining the future has become a Jewish hobby!

There are other “indicators” that would seem to be important in any consideration of the Jewish future. Based on my work, I see the “new normal” of the 21st century involving a number of significant developments.

Jewish Political Index

How politically influential will Jews remain? How might we define “power” in this context and as part of this emerging time frame? What will mid-century Jews be concerned about, and how will they express or carry out their political interests? Possibly more intriguing might be the question of how hospitable America will be to its Jews over the course of the next three decades. Will the world community see a continuous rise in antisemitism? If so, the Jewish future may well be compromised by a return to self-protection and the downsizing in many places of a visible Jewish public presence within the world. If the world faces further global tensions including wars and the climate crises, what will be the particular impact on Jews, both here and abroad?

The Jewish Condition

With these critical elements as a backdrop, it will be important to understand both the external and internal challenges that are likely to define the condition of Jewish life as we move deeper into this century. As has been noted in both this essay and the prior one, we are living in a fundamentally different political and cultural environment than the one that defined our historical past.

There are many questions that as a community we will need to address. What will be the patterns of denominational and institutional connections? There is most certainly the possibility that various legacy organizations will cease to be in play, with other organizations or models of organizing replacing these institutions. In this new era, religion will play a profoundly different role in shaping the lives of spiritual seekers and in providing alternative forms of community. No doubt, the racial and cultural diversity of our community will reflect the broader demographic changes of our society. We may need to determine the criteria or measures for “being Jewish,” and consider whether the “who is a Jew?” question may reappear as a major theme in light of the changing social characteristics and generational realities.

The character and substance of the American synagogue, as we understand it today, will be fundamentally different. If the United States follows the pattern of religious decline that has framed the post-Second World War European experience, there may be more synagogues operating as museums than as religiously active communities of believers. Yet, as we have noted, there are often cycles of renaissance within religious communities that lead to a rebirth of faith and practice. How much of Jewish life will operate as a virtual reality, as we move beyond institutional connections to an “individualized” Judaism?

Is it likely with the rise of the virtual synagogue we will see the presence of “national synagogues” that will dominate the Jewish religious space? Earlier this year, Ron Wolfson and I wrote about the on-line offerings provided by several major congregations during the pandemic that now provide a global Jewish reach.

Is it likely with the rise of the virtual synagogue we will see the presence of “national synagogues” that will dominate the Jewish religious space?

The track forward will see the realignment of American Judaism into a series different constellations, with the emergence of a triumphant and strong Orthodox community, the recalibration of various liberal Jewish expressions, and a growing segment of America’s Jews self-identifying outside of traditional organizational labels.

21st-century American Judaism will reflect many of the operational traits that are present in the general society. Affiliation, membership and denominationalism will become relics of an early era and in their place we are more likely to experience an increased focus on selective engagement, as folks resist formal affiliation and membership-based models in favor of single-issue causes and individually-directed boutique organizations.

We are likely to see the growth of privatized Judaism, which means: personalized Jewish professional entrepreneurial services, offered by rabbis and other professionals involving a “fee for service” model; the expansion of online “individualized” Jewish learning sites, creating a significant virtual marketplace of educational, cultural and social experiences. As people focus more on the self than the communal, we will see an increase in such personalized offerings.

In light of the patterns noted above, the downsizing, mergers and closures of Jewish institutions represent another outcome. This trend will be evident among synagogues and membership organizations. In an effort to expand and replace revenue sources, communal agencies and religious institutions will experiment with ways to generate new income streams. This will likely include the growth of Jewish-institutionally operated for-profit business models, as a way to manage costs.

Will the impact of these demographic and structural changes produce two “American Judaisms,” one traditional and one liberal, each offering various religious choices, as we move away from the 19th-century model of “denominationalism” (Reform-Conservative-Orthodox) to a 21st-century framework defined by practice, principle and performance?

Jewish Demographics

One question is what will be the composition and character of the Jewish population of the U.S. Our numbers and character be significantly altered, as converts come to Judaism with varied backgrounds and upbringings, creating a distinctively “new Jew” with minimal memory or connection to the unfolding of the Jewish historical past. By contrast, our community will be enhanced, even rejuvenated, by the entry of Jews by choice.

Inter-group and Inter-religious Relations

The place and status of Jews in America will likely change as our numbers and political influence are likely to decline. Historically, Jews have been dependent on their access to power and on building relationships with other ethnic and racial partners. The construct of these connections will be altered, due to changing power dynamics within this nation and to the shifting position of Jews within the broader society.

In a period where religion is perceived as losing its standing in society, are we likely see a growing set of accommodations and relationships with other religious cultures?  Most certainly, we should also be vigilant for a possible era of religious tension with a return of various expressions of anti-Judaism as faith communities compete for influence and members by promoting their ideological and theological differences.

Israel-Diaspora Relationship

The tenor and focus of this partnership, in my view, is core to Israel’s future. Israel’s role in the world, and more directly within the Jewish world will represent a critical element in defining the Jewish future. But the larger issue may be the survival of Israel. This scenario itself is challenging, upsetting and beyond our comprehension. Yet as Israel faces continuous challenges to its physical security, can the Jewish State survive the rise of radical Islam in all of its various forms, including the introduction of nuclear weapons?

If allowed to fulfill its mandate, Israel could be the economic engine and culture centerpiece of the Middle East, developing partnerships across the region with neighboring states that would benefit from its technology and in turn contribute to the rebuilding of the Arab world.

Beyond the external military threats to the Jewish State, one must also look elsewhere to ask how best Israel and its supporters can effectively manage and respond to the growing political challenges, whether directed by governments, influenced by public opinion, or framed by efforts to discredit and marginalize “Zionists” and others who support and defend Israel.

Jews on the Move

As with much of Jewish history, we will continue to monitor the movement of Jews. Indeed, the shifts in population are tied to such characteristics as economic opportunity, the threat of antisemitism, political uncertainties, and, in our own times, the impact of climate change. What will be the impact of such transitions on the health and welfare of Jewish life in various communities?

One of the key barometers will be the financial health of the Jewish community, as we monitor distinctive business and fiscal trends that are likely to impact Jewish life. In a changing global economy with the expected advances in technology and communication, we will see the continued re-distribution of Jews to various “knowledge” centersHadarnd new organizing models, such as Hazon.

I believe that the global economic picture will have a profound impact on where Jews will live and how their lives and social experiences will be reshaped.

I believe that the global economic picture will have a profound impact on where Jews will live and how their lives and social experiences will be reshaped. This suggests a further decoupling of Jews from their core communities, as an even more disjointed, virtual community emerges. No doubt an increasing part of the Jewish community will be “privatized” as economic forces will create more incentives for a business model to replace the volunteer framework. As technology advances, the virtual world will increasingly be the dominant form of communication and personal engagement, further isolating in-person contact and changing the meaning of “community.” These economic and social factors are currently contributing to how business and nonprofit institutions are reorganizing. Historically hierarchical and rigid in their structures, organizations are becoming flatter, more agile structures that allow work teams to be more responsive to change and as a way to demonstrate transparency and openness.

Rethinking the Idea of Community

There is a growing realization that “communities” are no longer organized around geography, but along values; group members are not neighbors, but co-adherents. Self-selected virtual communities have replaced organic neighborhoods, and echo chambers have replaced the public square.

Yuval Levin, writing in “The Fractured Republic,” observed that “American civil “society has been weakened by a century-long assault from hyper-consolidation, followed by hyper-individualism, leaving it ‘not well positioned to turn subnational identities into interpersonal communities.’” Levin further argues: “Promoting social-capital habits that increase solidarity in this era of nationalist tendencies in policymaking and in-group hyper-definition in cultural habits will likely result in ever more balkanization and isolation.”

Ideally, the value of community is that it delivers key benefits to its participants and on occasion frames collective action. The essential strengths of traditional communities involved the development of leaders for the greater good, the advancement of social, cultural and human services and the promotion of a sense of security, continuity and collective action. Communities serve as gateways allowing members to better manage and process social change and as a delivery system for messaging and the articulation of needs.

Moving forward, the focus on civic engagement and political participation may represent only one element of the emerging communal model. We are in the process of reinventing the concept of community, just as we are reimagining its many different forms of expression.

What are we learning? “Community” today represents a variety of different forms of organizing and connecting people. Older models of community are giving way to these newer iterations. But critics of this traditional organizing format are arguing that the existing system benefited those already empowered and connected. The essential question then becomes how we reach out to engage those not part of such organizing systems.

An important example of this traditional model is the interlocking directorships and networked systems that defined the Jewish communal model of the late-20th century. This level of connectedness represented a core ingredient that enabled the community to effectively process and manage its agenda. Going forward, communities will have different organizing priorities. In some cases, the focus will be framed around meeting the psychological and emotional needs of its participants, while in other settings such structures will be deployed to manage single issue priorities. We can identify short-term community organizing models that are constructed and then disbanded once the desired results have been achieved.

The question that many organizers and sociologists are posing has to do with both the “purpose” of a particular community and its “outcomes.” In other words, what is it designed to produce or achieve?

The traditional communal model is rapidly disappearing. The loss of a shared and focused agenda, rapidly changing constituencies and the evolving roles of institutions are contributing to the change in how Jews will understand their organizing options.

The Jewish story has always been about such transitional moments. The great shifts in the Jewish historical timeline reflect how “community” is created and reinvented over time.

The Jewish story has always been about such transitional moments. The great shifts in the Jewish historical timeline reflect how “community” is created and reinvented over time.

In earlier publications, I address both the external (societal) elements as well as the internal (communal-based) factors that are contributing to this phenomenon. The idea of community and the value of the collective are being replaced by an overarching attention to individualism. The increasing importance of the individual remains a core challenge to communal organizers.

As the community transitions, the idea of a holistic, integrated communal model has given way to a new constellation of distributed power. Traditional organizing principles are being challenged and, in some instances, discarded. The concept of membership and the idea of affiliation with and loyalty to denomination, among other organizing tools, are giving way to a more open and competitive market space. Boutique models are being introduced, framed around alternative organizing principles and delivery models.

Here then are some of the characteristics that will help to drive the next generation of Jewish community-building principles:

We will need to rewire the communal enterprise. Twenty-first-century Jews are asking both new and old questions, while demonstrating their distinctive passions and individualist behaviors.

The idea of a holistic, integrated communal model is giving way to a new constellation of distributed power.

Rather than reflecting a coherent community, our Jewish institutions will increasingly operate in pods, aligning with groups that share similar religious and political interests and who are likewise comfortable in forming collaborative arrangements of engagement and action.

External threats, including political disruptions, antisemitic behaviors, and health/pandemic outcomes, will likely provide the only basis for any articulation of a communal or shared connection. In the absence of a vital Jewish public square, we will likely encounter multiple and diverse expressions of Jewish identity.

The changing communal mindset is producing a culture of experimentation. A new creative robustness is generating personalized, individuated Jewish initiatives, led by a mix of generational actors and innovative organizing models. This new presence is comprised of a broad set of single-issue institutional expressions, with particular attention directed to specific sectors of our community; among these operational voices are activists giving specific attention to the broader social issues of race and ethnicity, sexual orientation and generational preferences.

Social media represents an opportunity to create new avenues of connection and engagement with non-affiliated individuals and religious seekers in expanding the reach of religious and communal messaging.

These and other organizing principles will emerge to reshape the Jewish communal marketplace. In the decades ahead, the imprint of entrepreneurial leadership, creative visioning and nimble funding strategies will define the Jewish public square.

Both within the Jewish world and the civic arena, many organizing options are being explored as ways to recalibrate social engagement, civic activism, and communal participation. As innovation and experimentation dominate both the public square and the Jewish marketplace, the search for community has begun.

Writing about the “state of the Jews” is a time-worn tradition. Examining the implications of this past one-hundred-year Jewish experience in the context of how we embrace the new realities of the 21st century creates a different story about an unchartered Jewish future.

May the Jewish journey continue!

Steven Windmueller is an Emeritus Professor of Jewish Communal Studies and currently serves as the Interim Director of the Zelikow School of Jewish Nonprofit Management at the Jack H. Skirball Campus of HUC-JIR, in Los Angeles. His writings can be found on his website, www.thewindreport.com.