Schumer’s Gamble

If you are reading this column about Chuck Schumer (D – N.Y.), you have probably already heard and thought quite a bit about the senator since his unprecedented speech in opposition to Benjamin Netanyahu last week. But after days of arguing about whether it was appropriate for him to inject himself into Israeli politics, we should now be asking what was actually accomplished by the Senate majority leader’s call for a new prime minister. Now that Schumer has spoken out, what has changed — in Gaza, in the Knesset and in American politics?

In the short run, Schumer’s most significant impact may have been to consolidate Israeli political support for Netanyahu. Even potential successors like Benny Gantz and Naftali Bennett felt obligated to denounce American interference in their country’s internal politics, providing the prime minister with a political life raft at a time when he is particularly vulnerable. Netanyahu has always expertly leveraged Israeli public opinion against outsiders who he accuses of misunderstanding the existential threat the Jewish state faces every day and meddling where they don’t belong. Much as Donald Trump’s rivals for the Republican presidential nomination were forced to defend him in the face of his various legal challenges last year, Netanyahu’s detractors had little choice but to stand with him against Schumer’s attempted intervention.

Schumer is smart enough to have anticipated precisely this reaction. His dissatisfaction with Netanyahu is genuine, heartfelt and wrenching: His objective was certainly not trying to throw Bibi a political life preserver. But he did it anyway, recognizing that a short-term gain for the Israeli leader was a worthwhile tradeoff to lay the groundwork for more lasting change in the Middle East. 

Schumer agrees with Democratic President Joe Biden that normalizing relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia to form a region-wide alliance against Iran is the key toward peace and stability in the region. The Saudis have made it clear that they will only pursue such an arrangement once a Palestinian state has been established. That is not going to happen until the current conflict has ended. Biden has been letting it be known in recent weeks that he sees Netanyahu as an obstacle to these steps and his impatience for the prime minister to move in this direction has been growing.

Biden’s tacit approval of Schumer’s message to Netanyahu sends a strong signal that U.S. backing for Israel’s approach to the war is no longer unconditional. 

It was obvious that the president was largely in agreement with Schumer’s speech, even if Biden himself has not publicly taken such dramatic steps. Biden’s tacit approval of Schumer’s message to Netanyahu sends a strong signal that U.S. backing for Israel’s approach to the war is no longer unconditional. Bibi’s public bluster masks his realization that even though the core relationship between the two countries remains strong, he cannot afford to settle for a more measured level of support that growing numbers of congressional Democrats are espousing. Biden didn’t issue the warning himself, but coming from such a stalwart ally of Israel as Schumer has been over the years, the message was received as if he had.

The other immediate impact was in this country, where the partisan battle lines over Israel continue to harden. GOP congressional leaders quickly pounced on Schumer after his speech, creating an even deeper divide between the two parties.

While an ardent pro-Israel Democrat like Schumer certainly cannot enjoy watching the growing polarization of the Jewish state, he could not have been surprised by the way Republicans leaped to Netanyahu’s defense. But again, this may have been a short-term sacrifice to achieve more sweeping change further down the line. Anger toward Israel in his party’s base continues to grow, and in addition to the real-world geopolitical stakes in the Middle East, the political trends among young people and minority voters will be devastating for the Democrats if left unchecked.

Schumer knows that pushing back at Bibi appeals to progressives, but actually achieving a two-state solution would be even more popular. The obstacles to such a success are considerable, but for Schumer and other Democratic Zionists, the current situation in Gaza — and in both Israeli and American politics — are unsustainable. We’ll know soon if Schumer’s interventionist risk paid off.

Dan Schnur is the U.S. Politics Editor for the Jewish Journal. He teaches courses in politics, communications, and leadership at UC Berkeley, USC and Pepperdine. He hosts the monthly webinar “The Dan Schnur Political Report” for the Los Angeles World Affairs Council & Town Hall. Follow Dan’s work at www.danschnurpolitics.com.