For Joe Biden, The Road to Jerusalem Leads Through Beijing

Not literally, of course. But given the likely foreign policy priorities for the incoming president, issues relating to Israel and the Middle East will take a back seat to more pressing matters. China’s increasingly assertive behavior on economic, military and human rights issues may be Biden’s most important long-term international challenge, but Russia, North Korea and Afghanistan are potential emergencies requiring immediate attention, too.

Biden has also made it clear that he wants to quickly rejoin the World Health Organization and the Paris climate accords and reestablish a stronger leadership role in NATO. Along with these first steps toward rebuilding the United States’ relationships with long-term European and Asian allies, Biden must also mend fences in his own hemisphere, with Canada, Mexico and throughout Latin America.

Add in ongoing trade and immigration concerns (further complicated by a global pandemic), and that’s a sizable list of urgencies for any president. Even in the Middle East, simmering problems in Iran could erupt at any moment, and Syria, Turkey, Lebanon and Yemen are always one step away from large-scale crises.

These pressing concerns mean that Israel might end up waiting for a while, at least for anything more than mid-level discussions and public platitudes. That doesn’t mean there aren’t important matters to confront, but while we’re waiting, Biden’s China strategy could reveal valuable lessons on how he will approach the Middle East.

How so? Biden is an avowed multilateralist and has always believed that coalitions are necessary for a country — even for a superpower like the United States — to achieve its geopolitical goals. In many ways, Biden will confront China in a manner remarkably similar to Donald Trump. He will continue to push back at China’s quasi-military expansionism, but not too aggressively. He will denounce China’s human rights abuses in that country’s Northwest and in Hong Kong, but probably will not do much more to stop it. He will lower the volume on the trade war between the two countries, but it’s unlikely that the Democratic party’s protectionist base will be any more enthusiastic about new trade agreements than GOP isolationists have been.

The difference is that Biden will not be acting alone. For the last four years, Japan, South Korea, Australia and other Pacific allies have stood up to China on their own, and they will be eager for U.S. assistance again. Domestic political considerations may prevent Biden from resurrecting the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade pact that Trump killed his first day in office. But look out for his administration devoting a great deal of time to developing regional alliances that can confront China’s aggressions more forcefully through collective voice and action.

But what does this have to do with the price of hummus in Haifa?

The same Biden mindset that focuses on relationship-building in Asia will undoubtedly reflect the new president’s thinking in the Middle East. Trump’s most significant foreign success has been his administration’s work to formalize the unofficial alliances between Israel and the United Arab Emirates, Sudan and Bahrain. But that type of multinational outreach has been uncommon over the past four years. Although Biden will certainly work to expand the Abraham Accords to include other Arab nations, repairing U.S. relationships in Europe and elsewhere will ultimately serve Israel’s interests, too.

Repairing U.S. relationships in Europe and elsewhere will ultimately serve Israel’s interests, too.

Without question, the biggest potential obstacle will be Biden’s troublesome interest in renewing the Iranian nuclear agreements from which Trump had withdrawn. Although Biden has indicated that he wants to see the Iran deal amended before he signs on again, it’s unlikely that any additional concessions he gains will mollify Israeli leaders.

But the incoming president’s relationship with Benjamin Netanyahu is strong and mutually respectful. Iran will be a trouble spot, but in the context of an otherwise solid partnership. This, of course, will be a different alliance than under Trump. But the respected analyst Aaron David Miller has it right when he predicts that Biden’s approach to Israel will resemble Bill Clinton’s much more than Barack Obama’s. In other words, even good friends can have disagreements as long as their friendship brings other benefits with it, too.

Dan Schnur teaches political communications at UC Berkeley, USC and Pepperdine. He hosts the weekly webinar “Politics in the Time of Coronavirus” for the Los Angeles World Affairs Council & Town Hall.