Rosner’s Domain— 10 Days: Time to Prepare for Israel’s Election

As much as we dislike politics, and five rounds of elections in Israel give us many reasons to dislike politics, or merely hope for a brief respite from having to think about politics – Election Day is 10 days away. Thus, I have no choice but to meet my obligation as political editor and propose a few pointers for the coming days. In other words, if you’re interested in Israel’s future, what are the trends that you need to follow until November 1st, when Israel goes to the polls.

Any signs of change: This has been the most static election season in Israel’s history, as far as we can judge (polls weren’t available in the early days of the state). Simply put, this means that any hint that people are deciding to switch from their current choice to a different choice of party could make a real difference. Even more important — in fact, a much more important sign — would be a decision by anyone to switch to the other bloc. We used to think about Israeli elections as a parliamentary contest between many parties, but this cycle is a contest between two blocs with almost no movement from one side to the other. For many weeks, most parties remained stable, and the blocs remained solid. A tie, or close to a tie, meaning, no one with the ability to form a coalition, was the result of almost all polls.

This has been the most static election season in Israel’s history … This means that any hint that people are deciding to switch from their current choice could make a real difference.

Arab intended participation: The share of Arab Israelis intending to vote in the coming election is low. If Arabs do not vote, the Jews get a higher share of the vote, and most Jews are right of center. In other words, a key for the center-left bloc to prevent a Likud-led rightwing coalition is to somehow convince Arab voters that they have a stake in preventing such outcome. The flip side of the same coin is for Netanyahu to not give Arab voters a reason to change their minds and suddenly decide to vote. 

Arab representation: The Arab voters are important because they will be crucial in determining the outcome of the election. But there’s another important feature of their participation that must be taken into account. Currently, the two parties closest to the electoral threshold are Arab parties (Hadash-Ta’al and Ra’am). This means that even a slight slip further down the participation scale could mean no Arab representation in the next Knesset. Repeat: more than 20% of Israel’s voters will have no representatives in the next parliament. And don’t blame the Jews for such outcome – if Arab voters decide not to vote, they cannot expect representation. 

Likud voters’ enthusiasm: In recent rounds, Likud voters did not attend the polls in great numbers. Some of them were cocky and believed that Netanyahu is going to win without them, some of them got tired of voting time and again without getting clear results, some might have tired of Likud, but do not have the stomach to vote for another party. Either way, Netanyahu needs them, all of them, to offset the shrinking number of parties who’d accept him as a leader of a coalition. Can he get out the vote? Here’s the tricky part of it: he needs to awaken them without using the means that would also arouse the Arab voters (that is, without crying “the Arabs are coming”). 

A Jewish Home dilemma: Ayelet Shaked and the Jewish Home party are a thorn at Netanyahu’s side. He wants her to quit, but she insists on running. He wants her voters to abandon her, but about 2% remain. This could mean a loss of 2-3 seats. The crucial seats. Thus, he will have to decide, sooner rather than later, whether to risk these votes by an even more aggressive attempt to bury Shaked, or risk them by calling on people to vote for her in an attempt to lift her party above the electoral threshold. In both cases, there’s no guarantee of success. 

Unrest in the West Bank: A rise in violent attacks in the West Bank and Jerusalem in the last few weeks could alter the course of the election in more than one way. They could impact the fervor of the right. They could influence the decisions of Arab voters. They could raise the temperature of this election to a higher level. Yair Lapid, as Prime Minister, is the man in charge. Any mistake when violence occurs on his watch could cost him the election. On the other hand, when reality, rather than empty rhetoric, is the main feature of public discourse, the PM has an edge, as he is the one who gets to make decisions and dominate the agenda.

Something I wrote in Hebrew

Would Israel enact a different policy had it known how the war in Ukraine is going to evolve? That’s not an easy question to answer. Here’s what I wrote:

In retrospect, it’s easy to say all kinds of things. In practice, leaders only have the reality in front of them. If you believe that Russia will win, you act on that belief. If the leaders of Israel believed that Ukraine could not withstand an attack, if they assumed that the West would quickly fold, that Joe Biden would act in Ukraine the way Obama acted in the Crimea – when they had little choice but to act the way they did. Does this mean next time Israel should act in a different way, be a little less careful (with states like Russia) and a little more moral (against all aggressors)? This is a complex question for leaders and a complex question for the public.

A week’s numbers

This is what optimism looks like. The right tends to believe there will be no need for a sixth election (namely, they win). The center and left tend to believe that another round is coming soon (namely, Netanyahu fails, again, to form a coalition). 

A reader’s response:

Josh Rosenthal asks: “I read your columns about the agreement with Lebanon and couldn’t figure out if the bottom line is for or against the agreement”. My response: I don’t think it is a very good outcome, but had I been a cabinet member I’d vote for it (because voting against it would do more harm than good).

Shmuel Rosner is senior political editor. For more analysis of Israeli and international politics, visit Rosner’s Domain at jewishjournal.com/rosnersdomain.