Are Half Of All Biden Jewish Voters Not “Pro-Israel”?

Over the last two years, Irwin Mansdorf has been a frequent guest on Rosner’s Domain, having written a couple of interesting articles about Jewish opinion in the United States. His latest is headlined “The 2020 Presidential Election: a post-election analysis of the Jewish-American vote.” As usual, the data is fascinating. And a lot of it has nothing to do with the 2020 election; it’s just about Jews and the way they see the world, and in particular, the way they see Israel.

The item that I found to be most fascinating in the study derives from a clever move by Mansdorf. For years, U.S. Jews were asked if they are pro-Israel and were expected to give a yes or no answer. Mansdorf offered them a third choice: “too vague for me to give a ‘yes’ or ‘no’ answer.” What happened next is telling. The number of “yes” dramatically drops relative to previous versions of this question. More than a third of U.S. Jews feel that “pro-Israel” is too vague. They can’t say for sure if they are pro-Israel or not pro-Israel. Why? Mansdorf suggests that “the hesitation to definitely place oneself in the ‘pro-Israel’ camp that we found may explain the difference between blind support and the desire to be more nuanced and specific in endorsing any specific Israeli policy or activity.”

More than a third of U.S. Jews feel that “pro-Israel” is too vague. They can’t say for sure if they are pro-Israel or not pro-Israel.

“Blind support” is a term with a negative connotation. Maybe it’s appropriate, but I can think of alternatives, such as “strong support.” Of course, if I choose “blind,” those who hesitate to call themselves pro-Israel get the benefit of having doubt, and if I choose “strong, ”those who do not hesitate get the benefit of not having doubt. While the choice of words is optional, the data speaks with clarity. Trump voters (about 16% of the sample) have less doubt. Close to nine out of ten say “yes” to being pro-Israel. Biden voters tend to have doubts. Just a little more than half of them (52%) say “yes,” and in addition to the few who say “no,” more than forty percent say “vague” (42%). That is, about half of all Biden Jewish voters hesitate to say that they are “pro-Israel.” Not even Biden himself would hesitate to say such a thing. So now you see why choosing “blind” over “strong” has a strong political connotation.

I already demonstrated that, based on other polls (by JRC and JStreet), a Trump vote tends to be a “pro-Israel” vote in the most simple sense. Jewish Trump voters prioritize Israel as a voting issue much more than Jewish Biden voters. Mansdorf has a similar finding in his study. “On the question of the importance of Israel-related issues in their decision on how to vote, Biden voters rated a 42 (on a scale of 1–100) while Trump voters rated a 68.” If such consideration is commendable is an ideological question. Surely, we Israelis would like to be factored in as an issue. But to be honest, most Israelis do not factor in American Jewish concerns when they go to the polls.

Mansdorf (of the Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs) concludes by making the argument that his study “showed that the concept of ‘pro-Israel’ may not be as relevant as in the past. Despite some limitations in our survey sample, we see that many in the Jewish-American community do not see Israel as a clear ‘black and white’ issue and do not feel comfortable describing themselves as ‘definitively pro-Israel.’” Again, that’s a possible and polite way to put it, but there is an alternative. The term “pro Israel” is as relevant as it used to be in the past. It is not the term’s relevance that declined; it is Jews’ comfort with it that declined.

Let me put it this way: maybe they aren’t comfortable with the term because — the way they understand it — it confuses support for the country and support for its government’s policies (which they oppose). Maybe they aren’t comfortable with the term because it is no longer fashionable or socially desirable to be “pro-Israel.”

More about Mansdorf’s studies:

Are You More Liberal or More Jewish?

Ilhan Omar or a Moderate Republican?

Rosner’s Podcast: John Ruskay and Irwin J. Mansdorf: What Does It Mean to Be Anti-Israel?

Rosner’s Podcast: John Ruskay and Irwin J. Mansdorf: What Does it Mean to be Pro-Israel?