The Israel File Appendix: The easy coalition

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Oftentimes, we also post an appendix to the File, to update you on the political situation with more detail and nuance. Our update includes information about the state of the polls. Today, we do not include the full table of poll averages, but rather a simpler graph of averages for two possible coalitions. Let’s look at the graph, and then explain what it shows:

So, what does this mean:

Imagine two possible coalitions, one of the right and one of the center left. These are the classic options for coalitions, and by looking at them it is easy to understand the true preponderance of political power as it seems today. The right-religious coalition includes Likud, rightwing Yamina, and two Haredi parties (Shas and United Torah Judaism). The center-left coalition is one that stretches from Blue and White and all the way to the left, including the Arab Joint List. The first coalition is one that we’ve seen many times, the second is not as realistic (because of the difficulty of forming a coalition that relies on the votes of the ultra-leftist Joint List).

What you see in the graph is how the average of polls changes for the two blocs in the last two and a half months. Simply put, the right is getting stronger, the center left does not have the numbers needed to form a coalition. The irony here is that the right is getting stronger while Likud – its main party – was getting weaker. This is because of the current popularity of Yamina, Naftali Bennet’s party.

Does this mean that the only option for a next coalition is a right-religious coalition? The answer is no. It is the easiest to envision, and the simplest to form, except for one thing: Netanyahu and Bennett do not want to sit together. Bennett wants to be the PM, and is going to look for ways to form a coalition in which he is the leader – maybe with Likud without Netanyahu, maybe with parties other than Likud. Netanyahu is going to look for alternatives to Bennett, in case he makes too much trouble. If there is no such alternative, the political price he’d have to pay will be very high.

Two caveats:

1. Bennett is strong, but whether he’s going to remain strong when there’s a new date for election is yet to be determined. The support for him is more a sign of frustration with Netanyahu than a sign of a newly solidified bloc of voters.
2. Bennett must distance himself from Netanyahu to keep the support of centrist voters, but this could be costly on the right. In other words: with a sore back (he had back surgery the other week), he is attempting a very delicate dance.