Based on the exit polls and partial results, here’s all you need to know about Israel’s political situation. As we get more accurate numbers, we will update the tables and our assessment of the likelihood of various final outcomes.
Numbers
The numbers presented here are based on exit polls by TV channels 12 and 13 that were updated late Monday night when real results started to get in. The official tally of the vote is expected late Tuesday.
Winners, losers
Winner: Netanyahu’s Likud is the largest party, and he might even get his dream narrow, loyal, right-religious coalition (to do that he will need deserters from other parties). Another option: A unity government.
Looser: Gantz and his party declined compared to previous elections. His options are limited. The outcome is not close enough for him to aim for a minority government or a fourth election.
Options for the future
The column “likelihood” in the following table is based on my own assessment of the situation and not a result of any formal statistical process of looking at probabilities (I do not believe such process is possible at this time). We will also update this table when new numbers and facts get in.
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