Down to the Wire

As we enter the final tension-filled days of an excruciatingly close election season, one overriding conclusion stands out above all others: Israel’s strongest opponents will decide our next president. 

I wrote last week that while we face renewed antisemitism from the most extreme fringes of both major political parties, the division among Democrats over the war between Israel and Iran’s proxies was poised to have a disproportionate impact on the outcome of the presidential campaign. 

But as we head into the race’s final days, it has become even more clear that the voting decisions of progressive critics of the Biden Administration’s support for Israel may represent the difference between victory and defeat for the vice president.

The voting decisions of progressive critics of the Biden Administration’s support for Israel may represent the difference between victory and defeat for the vice president.

Biden and Harris have been steadfast in their support of Israel throughout the current crisis, and they have suffered significant domestic political damage as a result of their support. The final margin will be determined by whether Harris or Trump is more successful at motivating their existing base of supporters. For Harris, these voters tend to be young people, non-white voters and other progressives. These are the same groups that have been the most critical of the Biden Administration’s approach to the Middle East and the most likely to exhibit sympathy for the Palestinians over the Israeli people. As we discussed last week, many of them will be tempted to vote for a third-party candidate or to avoid voting altogether, while a small number of these anti-Israel progressives will cross over and vote for Trump. 

The overriding question for these voters is whether their anger toward Biden and therefore Harris outweighs their revulsion for Trump. Just last weekend, we saw two high-profile and potentially influential bigots make the case on both sides of this critically important decision.

Last Sunday night, Trump’s campaign held a rally in New York’s Madison Square Garden, where he gave fairly standard and typically lengthy remarks. But the news coverage of the event was unintentionally hijacked by a racist comedian by the name of Tony Hinchcliffe, who delivered a hate-filled rant that targeted Latinos, Blacks, Jews and Palestinians in an extraordinarily ugly manner. A liberal voter who despises Biden’s support for Israel would have to think long and hard before taking an action (or inaction) that would increase the likelihood of Trump’s return to the White House after hearing Hinchcliffe’s screed.

But just one day earlier, another racist voice emerged on the national landscape to remind anti-Israel voters why they should not attempt to help Harris’ campaign. Nika Soon-Shiong, a Los Angeles activist whose billionaire father owns The Los Angeles Times, publicly took credit for The Times’ decision not to endorse a candidate for president this year. Patrick Soon-Shiong issued a statement that his daughter was not involved in his decision to refuse to allow his paper’s editorial board to endorse Harris. But Ms. Soon-Shiong contradicted her father, saying:

“Our family made the joint decision not to endorse a Presidential candidate. This was the first and only time I have been involved in the process,” she said in a statement to The New York Times, in which she also referred to “a country openly financing genocide” and an “ongoing war on children.”

It appears that Ms. Shoon Shiong herself believes that her opposition to the war drove her father’s decision to veto the Times endorsement, and that her efforts to prevent Harris from winning the White House will be to the benefit of the Palestinian people. For Harris supporters, this argument is a potentially dangerous one and could discourage many otherwise left-leaning voters from overlooking their differences with the Democratic nominee on Gaza. Trump’s backers, on the other hand, are almost certainly smirking as they watch progressives fight with each other to the GOP’s benefit.

Make no mistake, both Hinchcliff and the younger Soon-Shiong are both the worst kind of bigots. Both specialize in stoking outrage from the furthest extremes on opposite sides of the ideological spectrum. But the bigot whose voice disaffected Democrats hear last could shape the election’s final outcome.

Dan Schnur is the U.S. Politics Editor for the Jewish Journal. He teaches courses in politics, communications, and leadership at UC Berkeley, USC and Pepperdine. He hosts the monthly webinar “The Dan Schnur Political Report” for the Los Angeles World Affairs Council & Town Hall. Follow Dan’s work at www.danschnurpolitics.com.