The Impact of Sinwar

Yahya Sinwar, the Hamas assassin who changed the face of Gaza, the future of the Middle East, and possibly the outcome of the American presidential election, is dead. It will be months and possibly years before we understand the regional and global impact of his contemptible disregard for human life. But we may see his effect on U.S. politics in less than two weeks.

Even if a winner of the campaign between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump is not determined on Nov. 5, it will not be long before we begin to recognize how the political landscape in this country has been transformed by a war taking place thousands of miles away. Long before all votes have been cast, there are already clear signs that the Gaza conflict and its descendants have roiled voter attitudes toward Israel and intensified tensions both within the Jewish community here and between American Jews and many of our erstwhile external allies. Sinwar was ultimately defeated, but the consequences of his malevolence will be with us for the foreseeable future and beyond.

The fight against antisemitism in this country has long been a two-front battle, with menacing foes positioned against us on the two outermost ideological flanks of U.S. politics. But since last Oct. 7, many American Jews have been forced to confront the reality that the greatest domestic menace we face is not the blood-and-soil nationalists and bigots who occupy the furthest right-wing of the Republican Party, but equally ardent progressive zealots whose disdain for the Jewish state has too often metaphorized into a similarly uncompromising disregard for the Jewish people.

Since a sizable majority of American Jews are reliable Democratic voters, recognizing the mounting evidence of this level of hostility from the far left has often been difficult for many to process. Small numbers of Jewish progressives have joined with the strongest critics of Israel to denounce U.S. politicians of both parties who have supported the Jewish state throughout the current crisis. An even smaller number have defected from Democratic ranks altogether, slightly boosting Trump’s poll numbers among Jewish voters and discouraging others from voting altogether. But most have stayed with their party, either because they are sufficiently comfortable with Biden’s approach to Israel or because their sentiments on domestic social and cultural issues are more relevant to their votes than differences within party ranks on the Middle East.

Since a sizable majority of American Jews are reliable Democratic voters, recognizing the mounting evidence of this level of hostility from the far left has often been difficult for many to process. 

The resulting split within the Democratic Party has been a defining event of the 2024 election cycle, as first Joe Biden and now Harris have struggled to balance two strongly opposing viewpoints within their party. They have tried to simultaneously stand with the Democratic majority’s continuing pro-Zionist tendencies but while also maintaining ties with a small but vocal minority calling for a fundamental change in the U.S.-Israel relationship. Biden’s early optimism regarding a ceasefire and hostage release represented a hope not just for Middle East peace but also for a reunification of his party. But achieving those outcomes before the election ceased to be a realistic option some time ago. 

As the war has ground on, the debate in this country has lost some of its intensity. Highly visible and sometimes violent protests that upended college campuses last spring largely disappeared over the summer, and the unrest that has returned since classes began for the fall semester, while still disturbing, has not been nearly as heated or impactful. Similarly, until the war with Hezbollah erupted last month, war news from Israel had also moved further from the center of the American political debate. Biden hadn’t ended the war or kept his party together, but the divisions are less evident, allowing Harris’ campaign to make some progress in keeping this wobbly coalition in one piece.

This is not to minimize the threat from the ultra-right. But the “Jews will not replace us” fringe does not have the ability to impact Republican policy on Israel the way that our fiercest adversaries on the left have shaken Democratic politics. Regardless of which candidate is elected president, the post-Gaza political challenges for American Jews are just beginning.

Dan Schnur is the U.S. Politics Editor for the Jewish Journal. He teaches courses in politics, communications, and leadership at UC Berkeley, USC and Pepperdine. He hosts the monthly webinar “The Dan Schnur Political Report” for the Los Angeles World Affairs Council & Town Hall. Follow Dan’s work at www.danschnurpolitics.com.