Changing Tides

Benjamin Netanyahu is not used to being upstaged, especially when he comes to the United States. But last week, even as the war in Gaza raged in its tenth month, as a long-pending hostage deal loomed tantalizingly close to agreement, and as a northern front in Lebanon seemed poised to explode, Netanyahu was largely overshadowed by domestic American politics.

Joe Biden’s seismic announcement the day before Netanyahu’s arrival drove the national political conversation throughout his stay. While the Israeli leader’s speech to Congress and the accompanying protests received heavy media coverage, the attention was not nearly as intense as on his prior trips. The greatest amount of attention was on the meetings he held with Biden and the two candidates now fighting to succeed him, which revealed a dramatically different set of challenges for Netanyahu than he had faced in his previous U.S. tours.

The Biden meeting was predictable and not especially noteworthy, although the president’s affection for Netanyahu appeared more subdued than in the past. Donald Trump was more effusive, eager to put aside their past differences and demonstrate his solidarity with Israel and its leader. Biden reiterated his support for the Jewish state and urged a ceasefire and partial hostage release as the first step toward a broader peace deal, while Trump was more demonstrative in his backing and more ambiguous about his preferred solution.

But Netanyahu’s time with Kamala Harris was especially notable. While Harris has been careful not to differ substantively from Biden’s Gaza policy, she was the first member of the administration to publicly call for a ceasefire and has frequently used emotionally heightened language in her public comments to emphasize the suffering the war has caused and the need for additional relief.

It quickly became clear that Netanyahu would be facing a different type of discussion with Harris than with the others. In their joint meeting with reporters before they talked privately, the vice president noted brusquely that “we have a lot to talk about.” Although this word choice was not belligerent, it did hint at a somewhat less collegial conversation than Netanyahu is accustomed to having with American politicians. Harris’ team told journalists that she would speak to them again after the meeting, but by herself. In the intricate world of international diplomacy, such a decision means that she intended to deliver a message that would be awkward for Netanyahu to witness in public.

After the meeting, Harris still did not differ from Biden in the content of her remarks. But she was more forceful in her advocacy for an end to the conflict, and while the vice president did express her commitment for Israel’s security, she also spoke extensively about the humanitarian crisis in Gaza.

Netanyahu’s advisors let it be known how unhappy he was with Harris’ comments and suggested that the implied daylight between the U.S. and Israel could damage peace talks. But American politics regarding the Middle East have changed rapidly, and her advisors hope that combining Biden’s current policies in the Middle East with a different rhetorical emphasis that can win back at least some Democratic progressives who are unhappy with the administration’s support of Israel.

Harris’ ascension marks a generational change in U.S.-Israeli politics. She was three years old when the Six Day War began and turned 10 during the Yom Kippur War. Harris is not an opponent of Israel — far from it — but her memories of the Jewish state’s history are markedly different than those older politicians who witnessed Israel’s struggles in that era as they occurred. She and many of her generational colleagues will still be Israel’s friends and allies, but that relationship may look very different than it has in quite some time.

A day is coming in the not-too-distant future when, for the first time in more than 30 years, America’s support for Israel will be consistent but no longer automatic. 

As younger leaders here replace their predecessors in both parties, there is an important lesson looming for Israel’s leaders and American allies. A day is coming in the not-too-distant future when, for the first time in more than 30 years, America’s support for Israel will be consistent but no longer automatic. Smart Zionists should begin preparing for that change sooner rather than later.

Dan Schnur is the U.S. Politics Editor for the Jewish Journal. He teaches courses in politics, communications, and leadership at UC Berkeley, USC and Pepperdine. He hosts the monthly webinar “The Dan Schnur Political Report” for the Los Angeles World Affairs Council & Town Hall. Follow Dan’s work at www.danschnurpolitics.com.